In the United States, a “land grab” around perpetual futures is quietly unfolding. Perpetual futures are one of the largest and highest-risk products in the cryptocurrency trading space. According to reports, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are also planning to enter this arena to stake their claim.
Perpetual futures, more commonly referred to by users as “perps,” are futures contracts with no expiration date. Since Donald Trump returned to power, this type of contract has experienced explosive growth. Previously, perpetual futures contracts offering leverage as high as 100x were virtually nonexistent in the U.S., which was a key reason why offshore exchanges such as Binance and the now-defunct FTX were able to dominate the market.
According to data from CoinGecko, perpetual futures currently account for over 70% of total trading volume on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. Data from CryptoQuant shows that in 2025, the notional trading volume of perpetual futures climbed to $61.7 trillion, a 29% increase from 2024. In comparison, the notional trading volume of spot cryptocurrency trading in 2025 was $18.6 trillion, up 9% year-over-year.
The combination of prediction markets and leveraged trading could reshape how U.S. users trade on real-world events. At the same time, this will also put prediction markets in direct competition with platforms such as Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN), and raise questions: Will combining prediction markets with leveraged products exacerbate market volatility and create tighter links between cryptocurrency and traditional finance?
However, analysts have generally downplayed the potential challenges posed by prediction markets to existing cryptocurrency platforms. Robinhood launched a prediction market hub last year through a partnership with Kalshi, and according to the company, this product line became the fastest-growing revenue stream in its history. Coinbase also established a partnership with Kalshi in January of this year. Dan Dolev of Mizuho Securities stated that the user base overlap between prediction markets and cryptocurrency markets is “extremely high,” making Robinhood’s entry into this space a “surefire choice.” But he also warned: “Prediction market providers will ultimately face the risk of being disrupted.”
Earlier this year, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said it is promoting the establishment of “genuine perpetual derivatives” in the United States. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said: “The previous administration failed to create conditions for localizing such markets. Under my leadership, the CFTC will use all tools at its disposal to facilitate the implementation of perpetual contracts and other novel derivatives.”
At the same time, prediction markets have recently faced stricter regulatory scrutiny. Some incidents have shown that certain bettors are suspected of using insider information or manipulating underlying data to obtain excess profits. The introduction of cryptocurrency will undoubtedly attract more regulatory attention, potentially hindering the growth of these companies before they can scale up their operations.
