A macro research firm named Citrini Research recently posted a theory on the social media platform X about how to select high-quality chip stocks. The method is simple and straightforward: look for semiconductor stocks that haven’t seen significant gains yet. Whether this strategy will work has caught the market’s attention.
Although Citrini Research is not as well-known as Goldman Sachs, it gained some prominence earlier this year with a blog post titled “The 2028 Global Smart Crisis.” Now, in its latest post on X, Citrini has laid out a simple method for picking top-tier chip stocks: “This might upset some people, but at this stage of the cycle, you just screen by sector—semiconductors—find the stocks that haven’t doubled yet in this cycle and are still trading at the low end of their historical valuation range, then buy them.” The post was published on May 5, 2026.
Looking at the recent performance of the semiconductor sector, this theory has some merit. Nvidia was the initial leader of the AI boom, but last year, momentum shifted to memory chip stocks like Micron. More recently, the rally has rotated to CPU stocks such as Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD), and Arm (ARM). Intel’s recent rise provides the strongest evidence for Citrini’s theory: the company has yet to report particularly strong growth figures, but signs of a turnaround in its latest earnings report have been enough to drive a stock rebound—its revenue grew 7%, and it guided for 11% growth in the second quarter.
According to stock screener data, among 57 semiconductor stocks with a market capitalization above $300 million, only two have posted negative returns over the past year. In fact, only two stocks have seen gains of less than 25% over the past year: Wolfspeed (WOLF) and Skyworks (SWKS).
Wolfspeed is best known for filing for bankruptcy last year, but after reducing its debt burden by 70% and extending debt maturities, the company’s financial position has improved significantly. The stock has moved higher in tandem with the broader semiconductor sector over the past month. However, the company is still losing money, with its latest earnings report showing a gross margin of -27%. The good news is that its AI data center application business is growing, which seems to be enough to drive recent stock gains. Nevertheless, the stock remains a high-risk bet.
Skyworks, meanwhile, has missed out on the semiconductor sector rally, as the company’s revenue growth has been weak—essentially flat in the most recent quarter. The company is heavily dependent on the smartphone market, which has been sluggish lately. However, the development of edge AI could bring a turning point—if edge AI (i.e., AI running on end-user devices like smartphones) takes off, Skyworks stands to benefit.
While it isn’t easy to pick individual winners among lagging stocks, buying a basket of chip stocks that haven’t surged yet could prove to be a winning strategy over the next one to two years. Whether this simple screening method will truly work remains to be tested by the market.
