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At 11 a.m. Monday morning local time, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang will deliver the COMPUTEX 2026 opening keynote at the Taipei Pop Music Center. The highly anticipated speech focuses on accelerated computing, AI factories, physical AI, and agentic systems, and could directly influence the direction of Nvidia’s stock price this week.
History repeating itself? The 2024 Huang keynote that ignited a stock surge
Looking back at COMPUTEX 2024, Jensen Huang’s keynote was nothing short of a “trillion-dollar market cap” capital carnival. At that time, he announced the official production of Blackwell chips and unveiled a three-year roadmap: Blackwell Ultra in 2025, Rubin in 2026, and Rubin Ultra in 2027 – breaking the 18-month cadence of Moore’s Law. When Nvidia declared it would accelerate its GPU architecture release schedule to a yearly cycle, the market erupted. On June 5, 2024, Nvidia’s stock surged 5.16%, pushing its market cap past $3 trillion, surpassing Apple to become the world’s second-most-valuable company at that time. Throughout the COMPUTEX period, Nvidia’s market capitalization expanded by roughly 12%, while the S&P 500 gained only 1.4% over the same period.
Key看点 this year: Vera Rubin mass production and the mysterious N1X
The backdrop for this year’s COMPUTEX is different. Nvidia’s current market cap stands at about $5.1 trillion, nearly 1.7 times what it was at the same time in 2024. The market’s ability to digest positive news and the marginal impact of such announcements are bound to differ. Yet, looking at expectations, this year’s keynote is no less compelling than in 2024. The market is broadly focused on whether Huang will showcase the new Vera Rubin NVL72 rack system – Nvidia’s flagship data center platform succeeding Blackwell – which has entered the mass production preparation stage. At the same time, Nvidia and Microsoft have jointly been hyping a “new era of PCs” ahead of COMPUTEX, leading to market speculation that the Arm-based N1X PC chip could make its official debut, signaling Nvidia’s first major push into the consumer AI PC market. Additionally, Nvidia’s robotics platform Jetson Thor and other edge AI products are also drawing significant attention.
Intensifying competition and valuation pressures
However, the competitive landscape is far more challenging than two years ago. At this year’s COMPUTEX, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, AMD CEO Lisa Su, Qualcomm’s CEO, and other chip giants will all take the stage, creating a face-off among the three chip titans. AMD is expected to showcase its Helios server rack, directly competing with Nvidia’s NVL72 system; Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X2 Elite will also pose a threat to Nvidia on the AI PC front.
Valuation is another factor that cannot be ignored. Nvidia’s current share price is around $212, down about 10% recently yet still gained about 9.8% over the past month. The average 12-month price target from 54 analysts is $279.06, implying about 26% upside. However, market divergence is increasing: over the past six months, Nvidia insiders have executed 140 sales and zero purchases, and some institutions have shown signs of profit-taking, indicating a degree of caution regarding the sustainability of the company’s current valuation multiples.
Beware of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk
Investors must recognize that COMPUTEX’s impact on the stock is double-edged. If Huang announces product news that exceeds expectations, Nvidia’s stock could replicate the 2024 rally. But if the speech amounts to only “small iterations” of information already known to the market – for instance, if Vera Rubin’s performance parameters have already been partially disclosed and the N1 chip remains only at the roadmap level – historical experience suggests that after events like GTC and COMPUTEX, the AI computing sector often faces short-term pullback pressure.
A week before his speech, Huang explicitly stated that Nvidia plans to invest approximately $150 billion annually in Taiwan, describing Taiwan as the “heartland of the AI revolution.” This statement further solidifies Nvidia’s deep ties with key suppliers like TSMC and sends a positive signal that the AI infrastructure investment cycle is far from over.
