1911 Gold Corporation (TSXV: AUMB; OTCQX: AUMBF)
1911 Gold is Manitoba’s Gold Standard - Ready, Permitted and High-Grade 1911 Gold is an Emerging Gold Producer, with Significant Cash Flow Generation and District-Scale Growth Potential
Gold just closed its fourth consecutive weekly decline, briefly tumbling below the $4,000/oz threshold for the first time since November and touching a more than seven-month low. Friday’s modest rebound to around $4,050 offered little comfort—the 2.5% weekly loss and pervasive bearish sentiment have left investors rattled. With a “death cross” flashing on the charts and the $4,000 floor crumbling, the moment calls for a longer view, one anchored in historical perspective rather than panic.
The break below $4,000 on Wednesday was driven by a one-two punch: a surging U.S. dollar, which hit its highest in over a year, and persistently hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Markets are still pricing in three rate hikes this year, forcing gold to navigate what Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen describes as the “twin headwinds” of a strong dollar and restrictive monetary policy. Bybit chief market analyst Han Tan warns that the bearish “death cross” pattern could reinforce downside momentum, potentially dragging prices toward the $3,600–$3,700 range in the months ahead.
Adding fuel to the fire, oil supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have supercharged inflation expectations. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, warns that sustained oil-driven inflation could force markets to price in even more tightening, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. If the oil shock persists into autumn, Melek cautions it could trigger massive trend-following selling, pushing bullion hundreds of dollars below its long-term support at $3,900.
For investors shaken by the current sell-off, Solomon Global managing director Paul Williams offers a sobering historical lens. During the great bull market of the 1970s, gold plunged roughly 45% from its mid-decade peak to its 1976 trough—and then catapulted to all-time highs in 1980. Early in the Great Recession, gold similarly suffered a 30% collapse. “These episodes demonstrate that sharp corrections have often been part of the journey for long-term gold investors,” Williams said. “The question they need to ask is whether the fundamental reasons for owning gold have materially changed. In my view, they have not.”
Williams argues that the structural drivers that propelled gold to record levels—central bank buying, geopolitical risk, elevated global debt—haven’t disappeared overnight. Short-term price swings, he insists, are driven by profit-taking, interest rate repricing, and currency strength, not a reversal of gold’s long-term investment case.
KraneShares’ Jeffry Prior echoes that conviction, pointing to de-dollarization as a force that has become “structural” and “persistent.” “Countries are looking for a store of value outside of the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury market,” Prior said. “If countries are producing more oil and income starts flowing again, we don’t see that capital going into the Treasury market. We see it going back into the gold market.”
The numbers back him up. Central banks bought a net 863.3 tonnes of gold in 2025. That is down from prior peaks but still towers over the 2010–2021 annual average of 473 tonnes. More significantly, gold has already overtaken Treasuries as the world’s top reserve asset. In this light, Prior sees the current repricing as “a pretty good entry point.”
Melek offers a roadmap that is cautious about the near term but unambiguously bullish further out. Elevated oil prices and the Fed’s restrictive stance could keep gold pinned below $3,900 in the coming months, he acknowledges. But once geopolitical tensions ease, oil stabilizes, and inflation signals soften, the Fed will likely pivot. Lower yields, a weaker dollar, and renewed investor and central bank demand would then reignite the bull trend. Melek projects a potential run past $5,300 by mid-next year.
As Prior puts it, gold is a defensive asset, and near-term volatility is inevitable. But investors should fix their gaze on the structural themes—de-dollarization, central bank demand, fiscal fragility—rather than the noise of short-term rate fluctuations. If history is any guide, those who stay clear-eyed through the deepest drawdowns tend to be the biggest beneficiaries of the bull market that follows.
