According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Intel (INTC) saw its stock price surge 278.4% in the first half of 2026. The semiconductor giant, powered by better-than-expected first-quarter results and the finalization of multiple key partnerships, successfully reversed its prior market image of lagging behind competitors and became a focal point for investors seeking turnaround potential. However, after accumulating such massive gains, the company’s stock has notably pulled back approximately 28% since the end of June.
Intel’s upward momentum had already been building early this year, and the strong first-quarter earnings report further propelled the stock higher. In the quarter, the company’s revenue grew only 7% to $13.6 billion, but significantly surpassed the consensus estimate of $12.4 billion; adjusted earnings per share reached $0.29, far above Wall Street’s forecast of $0.01. What particularly excited the market was the data center business, which saw revenue grow 22% to $5.1 billion. Against the backdrop of increasing reliance on CPUs in AI data centers, investors paid close attention to the growth of this core business. Additionally, management’s second-quarter guidance also came in well above expectations, projecting revenue of $14.3 billion and EPS of $0.20, versus analyst average estimates of $13.1 billion and $0.09, respectively.
Beyond financial data, Intel also made breakthroughs in business expansion. Earlier rumors about the company negotiating chip foundry cooperation with Apple were later confirmed, with Intel set to produce some processors for Apple’s Mac laptops and iPhones. Prior to that, Intel had also signed cooperation agreements with Tesla and SpaceX regarding the Terafab AI data center project. These positive developments collectively underpinned the stock’s strong performance in the first half.
Entering the second half of the year, Intel’s stock encountered significant selling pressure. The decline of approximately 28% since the end of June primarily stems from growing investor caution toward certain AI-related stocks, while Intel’s price-to-earnings ratio of over 900 times (versus the tech sector average of just 34 times) has invited greater scrutiny over the justification of its lofty valuation. The upcoming second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for July 23, will be a critical juncture for the market to assess the company’s operational trajectory. Although Intel continues to make progress on new partnerships, doubts persist over whether it can support its current premium valuation, and subsequent stock prices may face continued volatility.
Investment bank Wedbush expects Intel to deliver a “strong” second-quarter report. Analyst Matt Bryson noted that revenue and margins are likely to easily beat quarterly expectations, and benefiting from lower operating expenses resulting from previous layoff plans, the third-quarter outlook may also be optimistic, with market estimates likely to be revised upward. However, he simultaneously cautioned that, as seen in TSMC’s case, even significant earnings beats accompanied by accelerating sales growth may not be sufficient to fully withstand broad-based selling pressure in the semiconductor sector—the latter stemming from multiple ambiguous concerns over Chinese AI progress, geopolitical and economic outlooks, and data center investment returns. Although Intel is better positioned than some to address certain issues, its current valuation is significantly above historical and peer levels, making it more susceptible to broader market fluctuations compared to companies like TSMC or Nvidia.
In terms of specific business segments, Bryson believes the data center business is likely to be the primary growth engine this quarter, with projected sales up 10% sequentially and 40% year-over-year, and pricing power strengthening as average selling prices achieve double-digit percentage growth. As 18A process PC CPU production ramps up and frees up older process capacity for server business, there is also room for volume increases, and server revenue may surpass expectations. For PC processor business, although shipment volumes are relatively weak, pricing remains firm, a trend expected to continue into the third quarter. Overall, margin performance is likely to come in considerably better than previously anticipated and may persist for several quarters. Bryson maintains a “Neutral” rating on Intel with a price target of $95.
