Since peaking in early 2024, Viking Therapeutics (Nasdaq: VKTX) has shed roughly two-thirds of its market value. As of August 28, the stock closed at $32.16, down approximately 8.4% year-to-date. For a clinical-stage biotech company whose core asset remains in development, such drawdowns are hardly unusual. The critical question is this: does VK2735 — the obesity drug candidate with both injectable and oral formulations — still have enough clinical data to support its valuation?
Core Asset VK2735: Dual-Formulation Advantage and Data Uncertainty
VK2735 is a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist being developed in both subcutaneous and oral formulations, targeting obesity and type 2 diabetes. Compared to rivals such as Eli Lilly’s Zepbound/Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic/Wegovy (semaglutide), VK2735 offers two potential differentiators. First, its “dual-formulation” strategy allows patients to start with an injectable form for rapid weight loss, then transition to a more convenient oral maintenance dose. Second, early clinical data suggest it may achieve a steeper rate of weight loss than currently approved alternatives.
In the previously reported 13-week VENTURE-Oral Phase 2 trial, the highest oral dose of VK2735 (120 mg) achieved a mean weight loss of 12.2% from baseline, with 80% of subjects losing more than 10% of their body weight, compared to just 5% in the placebo group. The subcutaneous formulation delivered even more compelling Phase 2 results, with a 14.7% weight reduction over 13 weeks. It is important to note, however, that these data are not derived from head-to-head comparisons with competing drugs. The ultimate verdict will have to await the results of the Phase 3 program.
Long-Term Catalyst: Phase 3 Data Still a Distant Milestone
Looking further out, the pivotal moments that will determine Viking’s fate lie well ahead. The Phase 3 VANQUISH program for subcutaneous VK2735 has completed enrollment, but the primary endpoint — percentage change in body weight at 78 weeks — is not expected until the third quarter of 2027. The oral formulation’s Phase 3 program is anticipated to commence in the fourth quarter of 2026, with data unlikely before 2028 or even 2029.
This timeline suggests that the stock will likely remain highly volatile for an extended period.
Near-Term Focus: Maintenance Dosing Study Results Imminent
During this long wait for Phase 3 data, a nearer-term catalyst looms large. Viking is currently conducting a 180-subject maintenance dosing study exploring various regimens — including monthly subcutaneous injections, daily oral doses, and weekly oral doses — following an initial subcutaneous induction period. Top-line results from this study are expected within the current quarter (Q3 2026).
These data are critical because they will directly validate whether VK2735’s differentiated “injectable induction plus oral maintenance” strategy can deliver both efficacy and tolerability over the long term. Earlier Phase 2 data for the oral formulation included some disappointing safety and tolerability signals, which triggered a sharp stock decline in the summer of 2025. Positive news from the maintenance study could significantly restore market confidence in the molecule. Conversely, any negative data would need to be weighed against the longer-term picture of the eventual Phase 3 outcomes.
The Broader Picture: VK3019 and Cash Position
Beyond GLP-1, Viking is also expanding its pipeline. The company’s internally developed dual amylin/calcitonin receptor agonist, VK3019, has initiated single-ascending-dose human trials, with early data similarly expected in the current quarter. Raymond James has noted that this represents a meaningful expansion of the company’s pipeline into amylin-based therapies, which could offer improved tolerability and combination potential.
On the financial front, Viking held over $500 million in cash as of the end of the second quarter of 2026, sufficient to fund operations through the completion of its Phase 3 programs.
The Verdict
Taken together, Viking Therapeutics finds itself at a delicate crossroads. The pivotal Phase 3 data that will determine VK2735’s commercial value remain years away, yet near-term catalysts such as the maintenance dosing study could trigger significant stock price swings at any moment. For investors, the real challenge lies in distinguishing short-term noise from long-term signals — each piece of interim data should be evaluated within a broader narrative: can VK2735 ultimately prove itself to be a best-in-class therapy in the eventual head-to-head arena?
