The two global GLP-1 drug giants, Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO), recently released their second-quarter financial reports one after another. As expected, market attention fell squarely on their respective weight-loss and diabetes businesses. As the absolute dominators in this field, the performance of these two companies directly affects investor sentiment. After the earnings releases, Lilly’s stock price rose, while Novo Nordisk continued the downward trend it has experienced over the past two years. The divergent trajectories of the two giants have sparked heated market discussion: Will this opposite trend continue? Which stock is more worth buying at present?
Lilly’s tirzepatide, sold under the two brand names Mounjaro (for diabetes indication) and Zepbound (for weight management indication), goes head-to-head with Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide, which is marketed as Ozempic and Wegovy.
Sales data directly reflect the efficacy gap. In the second quarter of this year, Zepbound generated $4.9 billion in revenue, a 46% year-over-year increase. In comparison, Wegovy recorded sales of DKK 19.4 billion (approximately $3 billion), up only 1% year over year. More notably, in a head-to-head study conducted by Novo Nordisk itself, Zepbound even outperformed the company’s own next-generation weight-loss drug, CagriSema.
In terms of the pipeline, Lilly also holds the upper hand. The company’s investigational drug retatrutide has shown even greater weight-loss potential than Zepbound. Although Novo Nordisk may have a slight lead in the oral weight-loss drug market, with its oral version of Wegovy holding a higher market share than Lilly’s Foundayo, looking at the GLP-1 landscape as a whole, Lilly is clearly the current winner, and this advantage is expected to persist.
Beyond diabetes and weight loss, Lilly’s product portfolio is equally impressive. The company has multiple blockbuster products, including the cancer drug Verzenio and the immunosuppressant Taltz, both of which have already joined the “billion-dollar club.” In addition, several new drugs are also expected to surpass the $1 billion annual revenue mark at their peak sales phases, such as the Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla and the oncology drug Jaypirca. In recent years, Lilly has also significantly expanded its R&D pipeline through a series of mergers and acquisitions.
Taken together, whether judged by the current performance and future potential of its GLP-1 business, the depth and breadth of its pipeline, or its diversified layout beyond core therapeutic areas, Lilly stands out as the more attractive choice among the two GLP-1 leader stocks at the current juncture.
