Bitcoin lost a key support level under the dual pressure of macro data and surging bond yields, with leverage flushing intensifying short-term downward pressure. However, the continued counter-trend inflows into ETFs and the significant rebound in spot trading volume demonstrate the resilience of institutional capital positioning amid volatility. The future direction of the market will depend on the interplay between options expiration, macro data, and real yield trends. The battle over the two key price levels of $84,000 and $96,700 will determine whether Bitcoin first touches $77,000 or $96,700.
On September 23, the Bitcoin price came under heavy pressure from macro data, hitting an intraday low of $83,500 and directly breaking through the key on-chain support range of $84,000 to $85,000. This price movement was not an isolated event; its deeper driving force stemmed from the sharp climb in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which closed at 5.11% that day, a single-day increase of 15 basis points. Given that the Federal Reserve had already raised interest rates to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, the strong economic expansion compressed the room for further rate cuts, significantly increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset Bitcoin.
From the perspective of market microstructure, the price falling below the key range triggered severe leverage flushing. CoinGlass data showed that as the BTC price declined, approximately $280 million in long positions were forcibly liquidated during the same trading day. Glassnode pointed out in its September 23 report that the $84,000 to $85,000 range has the largest concentration of long-term holders and is the current core support area; while $77,000, as the “true market mean,” would become the main downside reference point if the price continues to lose the $84,000 level. At the same time, the upper resistance level is defined by the MVRV average price, located at $96,700. Based on the current price of approximately $84,282, the $77,000 level is about 8.6% lower, while the $96,700 level is about 14.7% higher.
It is worth noting that the core variable driving bond market volatility was the S&P Global (SPGI) September PMI composite index rising from 56.0 to 58.4, with the services index at 58.7 and the manufacturing index at 57.0, the strongest expansion in the survey since July 2021. After the data release, the 10-year Treasury yield quickly climbed from 5.058% to 5.11%, and the real yield after subtracting expected inflation rose by 13 basis points, with the remaining 2 basis points coming from other factors. The 10-year inflation compensation rate rose slightly from 2.33% to 2.35%. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the transmission mechanism of this macro bearishness lies in investors demanding higher inflation-adjusted returns, thereby squeezing the valuation space for risk assets.
Despite the pressured macro environment, capital flows have shown markedly different resilience. Glassnode demand data showed that within five days after the start of the recent market pullback, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.3 billion in inflows, successfully reversing the outflows of the previous two weeks. Farside Investors data further refined this trend: $999 million flowed into ETFs on September 21, $714.7 million on September 22, and $346.9 million on September 23. Among them, IBIT (IBIT) attracted $350.3 million in inflows on the second day, FBTC (FBTC) took in $257.4 million, and MSBT took in $99 million. Although there was a sell-off in the bond market on Wednesday, ETF inflows still continued, only at a slower pace than on Tuesday. At the same time, 24-hour spot trading volume across exchanges increased by 121% compared with the lowest level in August, showing a significant recovery in market activity.
