Algo Grande Copper Corp. (TSXV: ALGR)
High-Grade Copper in North America
U.S. annual copper mining production has the potential to more than double from current levels as the federal government prioritizes domestic critical mineral supplies, reversing a decades-long industry downturn, JPMorgan said in its latest research note. The bank estimates the country could add 1.3 million tonnes of annual copper capacity, ranking third globally for potential supply growth behind Chile and Argentina, though most of the new output is unlikely to come online until after 2030.
Three decades of underinvestment have roughly halved U.S. copper production to about 1 million tonnes per year. The country’s share of global output has slumped from around 50 percent in 1900 to less than 5 percent at present.
The proposed Resolution Copper mine in Arizona accounts for nearly half of the identified U.S. capacity additions, making it the cornerstone of the long-term growth outlook. The underground project, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and BHP, is on track to produce approximately 18 million tonnes of copper over a 40-year mine life, and could satisfy as much as 25 percent of U.S. copper demand at full production. The development still faces pending permitting processes and technical studies, with operations not expected to commence before 2030.
Elevated development costs present another barrier. JPMorgan calculates U.S. copper projects require roughly $28,000 in capital expenditure per tonne of annual production capacity, above the global average of $26,000. The higher cost base pressures project economics, particularly for large underground developments that demand substantial infrastructure buildout before production starts.
Mine expansion alone will not deliver greater copper self-sufficiency. The U.S. faces a primary copper supply deficit of about 1 million tonnes annually, and will need additional smelting and refining capacity to process domestically mined concentrate. The pace of investment in both mine development and processing infrastructure will ultimately determine how much of the production potential translates into a more resilient domestic copper supply chain.
For the medium term, brownfield expansions at existing mines offer a faster route to output growth by leveraging established infrastructure and avoiding some permitting and construction hurdles associated with greenfield projects. U.S.-headquartered Freeport-McMoRan, the nation’s largest copper producer, is deemed the best-positioned player for domestic expansion, with more than 250,000 tonnes of potential annual output growth from brownfield developments, according to the bank.
Against this industry backdrop, JPMorgan has laid out a regional roster of top copper equity picks, most assigned an overweight rating.
In the Americas, Freeport-McMoRan carries an overweight rating, supported by its leading medium-term growth profile despite relatively high capital intensity. Grupo Mexico also earns an overweight rating for its more attractive valuation relative to Southern Copper, which carries an underweight rating.
Across the EMEA region, pure-play copper producers Antofagasta and Atalaya both receive overweight ratings, selected for their robust brownfield copper growth potential. Diversified mining group Glencore also gets an overweight rating on the strength of its solid brownfield expansion prospects.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Zijin Mining is named as a preferred copper investment.
Overall, JPMorgan maintains a bullish long-term view on copper prices and the global copper subsector, while warning that near-term downside risks have increased amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy. The push to rebuild U.S. copper output aligns with the country’s goal of greater critical mineral independence, though meaningful progress will depend on coordinated investment across both upstream mining and downstream processing capacity.
