According to the latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the estimated global potash production (in potassium oxide equivalent) reached 39 million metric tons in 2023, with Canada, Russia, and China taking the top three spots. Additionally, the global potash reserves exceeded 3.6 billion metric tons last year, with Canada, Belarus, and Russia leading, collectively accounting for 69% of the world’s reserves.
Based on the production-to-reserve ratio, there is no shortage issue concerning global potash supply.
Potash is primarily used in fertilizers (approximately 95%), and its market consumption correlates closely with major crop production, with a small amount used in manufacturing potassium-containing chemicals. As an essential nutrient for plants, animals, and humans, potash has no substitutes, making its demand irreplaceable.
However, the growth in global grain production has hit a bottleneck, suggesting that future demand for potash will continue to slow.
Furthermore, the USGS’s 2024 Mineral Commodity Summary reports that global potash consumption reached 35.7 million metric tons in 2022 and increased to 37.1 million metric tons in 2023, with Asia and South America being the primary consumption regions. The agency forecasts that global potash production capacity will increase from 64.3 million metric tons in 2023 to 67.6 million metric tons in 2026, with most of the growth coming from new mines and project expansions of Muriate of Potash (MOP) in Laos and Russia. Beyond 2026, new MOP mines are expected in Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, Morocco, Spain, and the United States.
According to Argus, global potash demand (potassium chloride equivalent) in 2023 was 68.2 million metric tons, projected to rise to 73.1 million metric tons in 2024. Brazil, China, and India imported 13 million, over 10 million, and 3 million metric tons of KCI, respectively, in 2023. Nutrien Ltd’s (TSX:NTR) annual report suggests global potash demand (KCI equivalent) ranged between 67 and 68 million metric tons in 2023.
In terms of pricing, potash prices were volatile throughout most of 2023. In the first half of 2024, the market stabilized, but in the second half, decreased production input costs applied downward pressure on potash prices. The World Bank projects that fertilizer prices for 2024 and 2025 will be lower than in 2023 but remain above the low points observed from 2015 to 2019, primarily due to strong demand and supply constraints, such as export restrictions from China and sanctions on Belarus.
Major potash mining company BHP (NYSE:BHP, ASX:BHP, LSE:BHP) is investing heavily in new potash production projects, notably the Jansen Potash Project in Saskatchewan, Canada, with phase two investment reaching $4.9 billion. Jansen Phase One is anticipated to start production in 2026, and Phase Two construction is underway, aiming to double Jansen’s capacity by 2030. This is a positive signal for the potash market and investors.
Here is the list of the top 10 potash-producing countries in 2023 (based on potassium oxide equivalent):
| Rank | Country | Potash Production (metric tons) | Potash Reserves (metric tons) |
| 1 | Canada | 13 million | 1.1 billion |
| 2 | Russia | 6.5 million | 650 million |
| 3 | China | 6 million | 180 million |
| 4 | Belarus | 3.8 million | 750 million |
| 5 | Germany | 2.6 million | 150 million |
| 6 | Israel | 2.4 million | Large (from the Dead Sea) |
| 7 | Jordan | 1.8 million | Large (from the Dead Sea) |
| 8 | Laos | 1.4 million | 75 million |
| 9 | Chile | 600,000 | 100 million |
| 10 | United States | 400,000 | 220 million |
