On November 15, the Russian government unexpectedly announced temporary restrictions on the export of enriched uranium to the United States, excluding supplies permitted under one-time licenses issued by Russia’s Federal Service for Technical and Export Control. This move is seen as a direct response to previous U.S. sanctions, intensifying uncertainty in nuclear fuel supplies and marking another battle in the global energy game.
In May 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a law banning the import of Russian-produced low-enriched uranium. However, to prevent supply issues, the U.S. Department of Energy can issue waivers valid until 2027.
Russia’s retaliatory measures have been delayed by six months due to various factors. Firstly, revenue from uranium exports is part of the national energy budget, and limiting exports could harm Russia’s economic interests in the short term. During this time, Russia may have been exploring other potential buyers and assessing the U.S.’s ability to respond, such as finding alternative suppliers and developing domestic uranium enrichment capabilities.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government is actively rebuilding its uranium enrichment capacity, providing approximately $2.7 billion to establish the U.S. uranium fuel industry. In April, President Biden announced that a plant in southern Ohio had successfully produced its first batch of about 90 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, with plans to produce one ton by the end of the year. In 2023, Centrus Energy（NYSEAMERICAN: LEU）successfully produced high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU).
The U.S. aims to reduce and eventually eliminate its reliance on Russian civilian nuclear energy through these measures, enhancing national energy and economic security, though this is not a short-term goal. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 27% of the enriched uranium used in U.S. reactors came from Russia in 2023. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of enriched uranium, accounting for about 44% of global capacity. In contrast, Urenco, the world’s second-largest enriched uranium company, supplies only about one-third of the U.S.’s needs.
Utilities usually secure uranium supplies years in advance, but analysts warn of supply challenges starting in 2025. Canadian uranium producer Cameco issued a statement emphasizing the need for coordinated action among Western countries to reduce reliance on Russian nuclear fuel.
Meanwhile, Centrus Energy, the largest U.S. trader of Russian enriched uranium, stated it has not yet received detailed information about the Russian decree and is assessing the impact. The company has contingency plans to mitigate short-term effects if Russia’s state-owned supplier Tenex cannot fulfill existing contracts. Despite the U.S. ban, Centrus has obtained a government waiver to continue importing Russian uranium.
