The global copper industry is shifting its focus to the escalating trade war between the world’s largest economies—a conflict that could impact copper investments. U.S. President Trump’s efforts to rebalance global trade (including imposing a 145% tariff on Chinese imports) and Beijing’s retaliatory measures are undermining global economic growth prospects.
Goldman Sachs released a macroeconomic report, revising its U.S. economic baseline forecast from “recession” to “no recession,” maintaining its expectation of 0.5% GDP growth in Q4 2025, and predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, July, and September. Commodities are also sounding the alarm. The latest report forecasts a global copper surplus of 100,000 tons in 2025 (previously projected as a shortage of 180,000 tons). This is primarily due to downward revisions in refined copper demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now expected to grow year-on-year by 1.5% and 2.3%, respectively (previously projected at 3.2% and 1.8%).
Goldman Sachs anticipates that slowing global GDP growth will dampen demand outside China. As a result, copper prices are expected to hit a low for the third time in 2025, averaging $8,300 per ton per month.
Ivan Arriagada, CEO of Antofagasta Plc, stated, “Investors, particularly in mining, need greater certainty, especially for long-term investments. Therefore, the current situation may suppress investment or delay some decisions.”
Assuming the trade war does not significantly impact copper demand or the electrification trends supporting it, reduced investment in copper mines would be the last thing the industry wants.
Data shows that additional demand from the energy transition, power grid upgrades, and the anticipated explosive growth of U.S. data centers means the industry will need to add 7.5 million tons of copper production over the next decade through yet-to-be-approved mining projects.
