For new investors seeking outsized returns, tech or artificial intelligence (AI) stocks often come to mind first. In contrast, the agriculture sector may lack flashy growth potential but offers stability. When cyclical downturns hit agricultural stocks, their price appreciation prospects can become intriguing—like the current opportunity with Nutrien (TSX:NTR), the global agriculture giant whose shares have nearly halved in value.
As the world’s largest fertilizer producer, Nutrien commands a market cap of C$36.57 billion and holds roughly 20% of global potash production capacity. It also reigns as the top U.S. retailer of crop chemicals, seeds, and fertilizers, directly serving farmers. Agriculture’s essential role in economies makes it a potential hedge against volatility.
Since hitting an all-time high in April 2022, Nutrien’s stock has plunged 47.71%. In 2024, falling prices for nitrogen and potash—its core products—weighed on performance: Q4 net earnings dropped 45% year-over-year, revenue fell 11%, and adjusted EBITDA declined 12%. While its dividend yield stands at 4.24%, the high payout ratio raises concerns.
Analysts note that fertilizer prices hinge on cyclical factors like global supply chains, production capacity, and demand. Recent rebounds in potash prices, improving supply chains, and rising food demand signal a potential turnaround. Notably, Nutrien shares have surged 13.24% year-to-date in 2025, outperforming broader markets rattled by geopolitical trade tensions.
Despite near-term headwinds, the company’s global footprint and agriculture’s non-negotiable demand underpin its long-term value. If fertilizer prices stabilize and food security gains urgency, this industry titan could enter a profit recovery phase. For investors eyeing dividends and cyclical plays, the current discount may offer a strategic entry point.
