In 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a series of energy-focused executive orders aimed at boosting domestic oil and gas production, while scaling back support for renewable energy. These policies underscore a fossil fuel-centric approach with deregulation and tariff protections. While they may provide short-term benefits to the oil and gas sector, they also raise questions about America’s ability to stay competitive in the global energy transition toward renewables.
Although the deregulation of the energy sector benefits traditional oil and gas companies, Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs pose challenges. These tariffs could drive up construction costs for energy infrastructure such as LNG terminals and pipelines, partially offsetting the gains from deregulation.
Jean-Baptiste Wautier, an analyst at the Wautier Family Office, commented that while deregulation lowers operational hurdles, tariffs increase infrastructure costs, creating a policy contradiction. Adam Ferrari, CEO of Phoenix Capital Group, emphasized that regulatory certainty from streamlined approvals outweighs the short-term cost increases from tariffs, enabling companies to plan long-term investments with confidence. Rita McGrath, Columbia University professor, added that some companies, like Exxon Mobil, stand to benefit from both deregulation and tariffs, while others, such as domestic fertilizer companies, could profit from tariffs shielding them from foreign competition.
However, experts warn that Trump’s focus on fossil fuels could leave the U.S. lagging in the global race for clean energy dominance. Exiting the Paris Agreement may expose American companies to potential trade and regulatory barriers set by regions emphasizing the energy transition, such as the European Union. George Carrillo, CEO of the Hispanic Construction Council, observed that investments in renewable energy by China and the EU could enable them to seize market leadership if the U.S. neglects energy innovation.
While the Trump administration deprioritized renewables, analysts argue that the global energy transition is inevitable. The increasing demand for clean energy from sectors like data centers and international markets is expected to drive long-term growth in renewables, irrespective of domestic policies.
The long-term impact of Trump’s energy policies remains controversial. While providing a short-term boost to the domestic oil and gas industry, over-dependence on fossil fuels might weaken U.S. competitiveness globally as the energy market pivots to carbon-neutral solutions. Focusing on deregulation for fossil fuels at the cost of renewable energy investments risks leaving American companies behind as Europe and China capitalize on technological advancements in clean energy.
Market forces and global demand are projected to steadily propel the clean energy industry forward, even in the absence of U.S. governmental support. The long-term balance of benefits between fossil fuel reliance and renewable energy leadership will likely depend on the global market dynamics, consumer demand, and shifts in investment preferences.
