The recent pullback in precious metals prices reflects a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, but gold and silver are poised for renewed gains in the second half of 2025, with gold potentially surpassing $4,000/oz and silver reaching $40/oz by year-end, according to Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodity and Derivatives Research at Bank of America Securities.
“We had forecast gold reaching $3,500 in the first half of this year, and that target was achieved,” Blanch said in a CNBC interview. “The market is now undergoing a correction that could last several months, but we remain bullish long-term. We expect gold to break through $4,000 by late 2025 or 2026.”
Blanch attributed the recent struggle to hold above $3,500/oz to fading “extreme uncertainty.” For prices to sustainably break higher, renewed geopolitical turmoil and policy unpredictability will be necessary—a scenario Bank of America anticipates materializing toward year-end.
Spot gold was last seen trading at $3,294.15/oz on Tuesday, down 1.45% and struggling below the $3,300 psychological level.
While silver has lagged gold’s rally, Blanch maintains a $40/oz target, noting its dual nature as both a monetary and industrial metal. “Silver’s recent underperformance stems from soft industrial demand,” he explained. Following a strong trade window between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, tariff implementations have dampened industrial activity for one to two quarters, pressuring silver prices.
Spot silver fell 1.27% to $33.068/oz on Tuesday, exhibiting significantly higher volatility than gold. However, Blanch emphasized silver’s critical role in solar panels and electrification: “As the world’s best electrical conductor, silver will regain momentum once industrial conditions stabilize.”
Notably, COMEX gold net-long positions have retreated from record highs, signaling profit-taking by some investors. Yet robust central bank buying continues to provide structural support, with the World Gold Council reporting 290 tonnes of net purchases in Q1—the second-highest first-quarter total on record.
A Singapore-based precious metals trader added: “When markets recognize that inflationary pressures are more persistent than expected, precious metals will see another upswing. Silver’s volatility means it could ultimately outperform gold, but timing entry points requires patience for industrial demand signals to turn positive.”
