Copper prices have experienced violent fluctuations in 2025. After hitting a record high at the end of March, they almost broke the $4 mark in just two weeks. So far this year, copper prices have still risen by nearly 16%. Although copper prices have temporarily rebounded due to the easing of Sino-US trade relations, copper prices have weakened again in the middle of this week. The most active copper futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.8% to $4.639 per pound (equivalent to $10,220 per ton) in midday trading.
RBC Dominion Securities reported that China’s imports of copper concentrate in April increased by 24% to nearly 3 million tons, a five-year high. It is worth noting that these imports were completed with negative processing fees (fees paid by miners to smelters) – spot processing fees have been negative since December last year, and fell to a record low of -$57.50 per ton last Friday.
Chinese smelters are delighted to regain concentrate exports from Freeport’s Grasberg mine after the US company obtained the necessary permits from Indonesian authorities and Glencore’s Philippine smelter shutdown caused cargoes to be rerouted to China. Freeport’s smelter in the Philippines is expected to be operational in September, which will cut off a source of supply for Chinese smelters that have expanded production capacity at an astonishing rate in recent years.
Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories continue to decline, with only 89,000 tons at the end of April, a sharp drop of nearly 150,000 tons in a single month. Royal Bank of Canada believes that although the details of the China-US trade agreement have yet to be finalized and the impact on global growth is difficult to fully assess, the agreement may be a step to reduce economic risks and will prompt the positive fundamentals of copper to reappear.
The investment bank also pointed out that copper mining stocks are still attractively valued, and pointed out that Capstone Copper, Hudbay Minerals, Ivanhoe Mines and First Quantum Minerals are preferred copper mining stocks.
Goldman Sachs raised its near-term copper price forecast in early May, citing easing global trade tensions and strong demand from top consumer China. In the long term, Goldman analysts predict the copper market will fall into supply deficit by 2026, driven by strong demand from electrification-related industries and limited growth in the mining sector.
