Global physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest semi-annual inflows since the first half of 2020, with net investments reaching $38 billion in the first six months of 2025, according to the latest World Gold Council (WGC) report. These inflows, equivalent to 397.1 metric tons of gold, pushed total holdings to 3,615.9 tons—the highest level since August 2022.
U.S.-listed funds led the surge, absorbing 206.8 tons, while Asian-listed ETFs attracted 104.3 tons, accounting for 28% of global net inflows despite representing just 9% of total assets under management.
Renewed trade tensions triggered by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have spurred investors toward gold as a hedge against economic volatility. The WGC noted, “Political uncertainty has reignited gold’s role as a traditional safe haven.”
Meanwhile, softening U.S. inflation and labor market data have fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. Trump has repeatedly urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slash rates by 100 basis points this year, further supporting gold’s appeal in a lower-yield environment.
Further than that, data showing that robust investment demand from China and India has kept premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange elevated, reflecting strong regional buying interest.
Spot gold prices hit an all-time high of $3,500/oz in April 2025, marking a 26% year-to-date gain. Analysts remain divided on the metal’s near-term trajectory:
Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target to $3,800/oz, citing synchronized buying by central banks (387 tons purchased in H1) and ETF investors.
However, J.P Morgan cautioned that a U.S. soft landing could erode gold’s risk premium, warning of a potential technical pullback.
With central bank gold accumulation and de-dollarization trends intact, analysts suggest gold is evolving from a tactical hedge to a strategic asset. As Q3 seasonal demand kicks in, prices may consolidate between $3,200-$3,600/oz.
Key events to watch include August’s Jackson Hole symposium for central bank policy signals and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for labor market insights.
Market participants recommend a balanced approach: core allocations via SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), tactical exposure to gold miners (GDX), and hedging tools to manage volatility. The stage appears set for gold to test new highs—if macroeconomic winds remain favorable.
