On Monday afternoon, U.S. gold and silver prices experienced moderate declines, though they rebounded significantly from their earlier session lows. As investor risk appetite improved—reflected by last week’s record highs in major U.S. stock indices—safe-haven metals faced mild selling pressure at the start of the week.
August gold futures slipped by $8.30 to $3,334.90 per ounce, while September silver futures fell $0.224 to $36.86 per ounce.
This week marks the opening of the BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. President Donald Trump has cautioned that countries aligning with BRICS and its perceived “anti-American” policies could face additional tariffs. Given the potential long-term effects of this meeting on gold prices, market analysts are closely monitoring developments.
Trump had initially set July 9 as the final deadline for a pause on steep tariffs, after which duties would return to their April 2 levels. However, both Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the president signaled on Sunday that actual enforcement of the tariff increases would be delayed until August 1, even though countries may receive official notices this week.
As of now, the United States has only secured trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam, along with a framework for negotiations with China.
Even escalating tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell failed to push gold prices higher. Instead, gold declined during pre-market trading on Monday, breaking below key support levels with confirmation.
This technical breakdown signals a clear reversal in trend. Long-term indicators, such as the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), now suggest that gold has reached a major historical top. These indicators are currently more overbought than they were during the 2011 and 2020 peaks, both of which were followed by months of sustained declines in gold prices and mining stocks.
Far from being a short-term signal, this trend reflects a significant long-term warning for gold investors.
As gold and miners confirm their breakdowns, the U.S. Dollar Index appears to be forming a bottom in line with its monthly turning points. A confirmed breakout above downward resistance lines could solidify the medium-term bottom for the Dollar Index. What’s key here is that this rebound aligns with long-term support levels rather than short-term ones, lending further weight to the dollar’s recovery.
The broader decline in the Dollar Index from 2022 to 2025 could now be interpreted as part of a bullish ABC correction pattern. This mirrors the 2008 scenario, when the dollar was heavily criticized due to the twin deficits but managed to mark a long-term low. The current situation seems to be history repeating itself.
Given the typically inverse relationship between precious metals and the dollar, the extreme states of both assets (overbought precious metals and oversold dollar) mutually reinforce this outlook.
The extension of the tariff deadline to August 1 may provide temporary relief to markets by reducing immediate uncertainty, while gold’s technical breakdown and the strengthening dollar indicate headwinds for the precious metals market moving forward. For investors, caution is paramount as major historical signals—both technical and macroeconomic—point to a challenging period ahead for gold prices.
