In recent years, weight-loss drugs have become one of the fastest-growing sectors in the biotech and pharmaceutical industries. Pharmaceutical giants Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate the market with their blockbuster products and have reaped substantial revenues due to surging demand. Last year, such drugs were even listed on the FDA’s drug shortage list due to supply failing to meet demand. Although both companies have actively expanded production capacity, market demand remains strong. Analysts predict that the global market size for weight-loss drugs could approach $100 billion by 2030. Given this vast potential, numerous companies are eager to enter the field, and pharmaceutical giant Pfizer is one of them.
After Pfizer terminated its internally developed weight-loss drug candidate earlier this year, the market widely anticipated it would fill the pipeline gap by acquiring small biotech companies. Viking Therapeutics was frequently cited by investors and analysts as a potential acquisition target, and related speculation repeatedly drove up its stock price. However, the acquisition target announced by Pfizer this week was not Viking, but Metsera, a new company founded just earlier this year. This outcome was unexpected, but Viking’s stock price did not fall after the announcement; instead, its shareholders may find reason for encouragement.
Viking Therapeutics focuses on developing innovative drugs for treating obesity and endocrine disorders. Its core product, VK2735, is a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist. Its mechanism of action is similar to the marketed drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, working by regulating appetite and blood sugar levels to achieve weight loss. The company is currently advancing both injectable and oral formulations of this drug: the injectable version has entered Phase III clinical trials, while the oral formulation is in Phase II. In the released Phase II data, the VK2735 injectable helped patients achieve an average weight loss of 13.1% over 13 weeks, and the oral formulation achieved a weight loss of 12.2% over the same period. These positive data previously drove the company’s stock price to surge 121% in a single day early last year. Although the stock price subsequently retraced, its R&D capabilities continue to attract significant attention.
Pfizer’s acquisition of Metsera, conversely, highlights Viking’s potential value. Although Metsera has multiple weight-loss drug candidates in development, its most advanced candidate, MET-097i, has only progressed to Phase IIb clinical trials and primarily boasts the advantage of once-monthly dosing. In contrast, Viking’s R&D stage is more mature, nearing the completion of Phase III, and is closer to regulatory submission and review for market approval. Furthermore, Pfizer paid a potential consideration of up to $7.3 billion for Metsera, including an acquisition price of $47.50 per share (a 43% premium) and future potential performance-based payments. Viking’s current market capitalization is only approximately $2.8 billion, with a stock price below $25. This comparison suggests that Viking might be significantly undervalued by the market.
Whether Viking ultimately becomes an acquisition target for another pharmaceutical giant or chooses to independently advance its R&D and enter the massive weight-loss market, its current product pipeline value and clinical progress provide its shareholders with ample reasons for optimism. Pfizer’s acquisition activity provides a new benchmark for asset valuation within the entire weight-loss drug sector, and Viking clearly holds a favorable position in this race.
