Copper Could Rally to $12,000 by Year-End, Top Trader Predicts

Copper prices are poised to challenge the $12,000-per-tonne mark by year-end, prominent industry figures forecast, citing intensifying supply disruptions and robust demand from the global green energy transition.

The bullish outlook was a central theme at the recent LME Week in London. In a rare public prediction, Kenny Ive, CEO of IXM – the trading unit of China’s CMOC Group – expressed strong optimism, stating he sees copper reaching $11,000 to $12,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) before the end of the year. Such a move would set a fresh all-time high.

This sentiment is underpinned by a severe tightening of market fundamentals, with supply woes mounting just as demand from renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs) accelerates.

Deepening Supply Crisis

A series of operational setbacks at major mines worldwide is severely constraining supply.

• Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine, declared force majeure following a landslide, with 2026 output expected to be slashed by 35%.
• Output at Codelco’s flagship El Teniente underground mine plummeted 25% year-on-year in August to a two-decade low following a fatal accident.
• The Collahuasi mine, a joint venture between Anglo American and Glencore, saw production fall 27%. Several mining giants have subsequently downgraded their production guidance for 2024 and 2025.

Unabated Green Demand

While China’s property sector remains a drag, the explosive growth in green technologies is providing powerful structural support for copper consumption.

• According to research firm BMI, China added a massive 21.2 gigawatts of solar power capacity in the first half of 2025, while EV sales jumped 33% to 5.4 million units.
• This strong consumption has led to a dramatic drawdown in visible inventories. Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses collapsed to 26,800 tonnes by end-September from 160,800 tonnes in March. Similarly, LME registered inventories halved over the course of 2025.

Institutions Revise Forecasts

In response to the tightening market, financial institutions are upgrading their price projections.

• BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, raised its average 2025 copper price forecast to $9,650 per tonne from $9,500.
• The view that prices could soar higher was echoed by Nick Snowdon, head of metals research at Mercuria Energy Group, who agreed at LME Week that copper could “easily” reach $12,000.

Looking further ahead, BMI anticipates a prolonged structural deficit, driven by the material intensity of the energy transition. With battery-electric vehicles containing over 50 kg of copper and offshore wind farms requiring up to 8 tonnes per megawatt, the agency projects prices could climb to $17,000 per tonne by 2034.

Amid faltering mine supply and a tidal wave of green-demand, the stage appears set for the “red metal” to embark on a new supercycle.

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