Apple, currently the world’s second-largest company by market capitalization, boasts a staggering market value of $3.9 trillion. However, in the critical battlefield that will define the future – artificial intelligence – it is showing signs of weakness. This tech giant has not only lost significant AI talent, but its iconic Siri voice assistant also seems stagnant, progressing slowly compared to competitors who are racing to launch innovations. This lag in AI is directly reflected in its financial growth, which has slowed relative to its peers. In contrast, two giants deeply entrenched in cloud computing and AI – Amazon and Alphabet – are demonstrating stronger growth momentum and are poised to surpass Apple in market capitalization by the end of 2026.
Amazon, with its deep expertise in cloud computing and automation, stands as the first strong contender likely to overtake Apple. While its core business, Amazon Web Services, faced challenges in developing its own chatbot, it has successfully built a powerful cloud service platform enabling numerous businesses to deploy AI applications. Over the past 12 months, AWS revenue reached $116.7 billion, maintaining a 17% year-over-year growth. This contrasts sharply with Apple’s near-zero revenue growth over the last three years.
Continued investment in AI cloud infrastructure, particularly its partnership with the emerging AI company Anthropic, will provide sustained momentum for AWS’s future growth. Simultaneously, Amazon extensively applies AI technology within its vast e-commerce ecosystem: deploying robots to optimize logistics network efficiency, utilizing AI tools to help advertisers generate content, and improving platform search experiences for consumers. These initiatives have yielded significant results, with its North American retail sales growing 11% year-over-year and its operating margin over the past 12 months improving to 7%. As automation technology further penetrates its operations, its profit margins are expected to continue expanding. Overall, with revenue growth progressing alongside margin expansion, Amazon’s operating profit over the past 12 months has reached $77 billion and is projected to exceed $100 billion by 2026. Although this still trails Apple’s current operating profit of approximately $130 billion, Amazon is rapidly closing the gap. Its higher growth potential arguably warrants a higher market valuation than Apple.
Another severely underestimated AI force is Alphabet. The company possesses a portfolio of top-tier assets including Google Search, YouTube, and Google Cloud, giving it comprehensive advantages to dominate the AI era.
Technically, its Gemini chatbot performs excellently and is steadily eroding ChatGPT’s market share. More importantly, Alphabet has access to vast amounts of high-quality data from its search, email, and video platforms, which is crucial for training more powerful AI models. Furthermore, its self-developed Tensor Processing Unit chips reduce excessive reliance on Nvidia for AI training costs, forming a unique competitive edge.
Its Google Cloud business has an annualized revenue of approximately $50 billion and achieved 32% year-over-year growth last quarter, demonstrating significant potential as a strong challenger to AWS. Currently, no other company possesses a mature product matrix like Alphabet’s capable of monetizing AI technology at scale, including Google Search and YouTube, which reach billions of users globally. Based on its solid business foundation and clear AI growth trajectory, Alphabet’s revenue grew 13% year-over-year last quarter. Its operating profit over the past 12 months reached a substantial $121 billion and is projected to surpass Apple’s by 2026.
Investment should focus on the future, not cling to past glory. Both Alphabet and Amazon not only demonstrate strong current profitability but also have clearer growth trajectories. It is anticipated that by 2026, these two leaders deeply embedded in cloud computing and artificial intelligence are highly likely to surpass Apple in market capitalization. Even if this goal is not achieved as expected, they remain high-quality assets worthy of long-term holding.
