Weekly Market Recap (October 24) – Gold’s Record Run Tests Bullish Conviction

Bargain Hunters Prop Up Gold, Securing Its Three-Year Bull Run
Published on: Oct 24, 2025

Gold markets are navigating extreme volatility in 2025, with prices breaching the historic mark before tumbling sharply, raising questions over the durability of the rally.After climbing past $4,000 in early October, gold faced a sudden reversal on October 21, plunging 6% in its largest single-day drop in 12 years.

Despite the pullback, the metal remains one of the year’s top-performing assets, up around 50% year-to-date.

In October 2025, Bradley Rourke, CEO and Director of Scottie Resources Corp. (TSXV: SCOT), discussed the company’s recent developments and future plans in an interview with METALS 100. Scottie Resources, a gold exploration company in British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, controls the 100%-owned Scottie Gold Mine Project — an 8,534-hectare property with over 30 mineralized zones, including the historic Scottie Mine. The project hosts an inferred resource of 703,000 ounces at 6.1 grams per tonne gold, with ongoing drilling at the Blueberry Contact Zone and strong growth potential. In 2025, the company raised C$15.9 million to advance exploration and expand its resource base.

In a recent note, Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 gold price forecast sharply from $3,313 to $4,400 per ounce, suggesting roughly 10% upside from early October levels. According to Amy Gower, the bank’s metals and mining strategist, gold has become a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical tensions. A weaker U.S. dollar, strong ETF inflows, persistent central bank purchases, and broad market uncertainty have all supported prices.

Central bank activity has been particularly striking. Annual net gold purchases by global central banks exceeded 1,000 tonnes for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024—double the levels seen in the 2014–2016 period. Notably, gold’s share of central bank reserves surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996.

Institutional and retail investors have also returned. Physical gold ETFs saw a record $26 billion of inflows in the third quarter, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion.

However, Gower warned that high prices could erode demand. Central banks, for example, may buy less physical gold to maintain the value of their reserves.

On the supply side, mine output remains constrained. Since 2018, global gold mine supply has grown at an average annual rate of just 0.3%. While some miners are reviving old projects or extending mine life, expansion is limited by environmental permits, tax uncertainties, and funding constraints. The U.S. has not opened a new gold mine since 2002. Morgan Stanley believes a new “super capital cycle” in gold mining is unlikely given regulatory hurdles.

The market now sits in a delicate balance. Expectations of a weaker dollar, Federal Reserve rate cuts—which have historically lifted gold 6% in the 60 days following the first cut—and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to underpin sentiment.

Gold remains one of our most preferred commodities, Gower noted. Yet investors must recognize that this historic bull run faces mounting challenges—primarily from the impact of high prices on demand. While central bank buying remains robust and gold’s role as a portfolio hedge stays relevant, volatility is likely to intensify.

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