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China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a statement on Sunday announcing the temporary suspension of export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, and related products, effective until November 27, 2026.
The nearly year-long ban, initially imposed in December 2024 as a countermeasure in the trade dispute, has now been paused, signaling a easing of tensions between the world’s two largest economies in the critical minerals sector.
The lifting of the ban represents the latest step toward gradual warming in China-U.S. trade relations. At the end of 2024, China implemented export controls on these three strategic metals, which are essential for semiconductors and defense industries, in response to the Biden administration’s restrictions on high-bandwidth memory chip exports to China.
Data shows China’s dominant position in the global supply chain: in 2023, it accounted for nearly 50% of global antimony mine production, close to 60% of refined germanium output, and an overwhelming 99% of refined gallium production. According to estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey, the ban on gallium and germanium alone could have resulted in a $3.4 billion blow to the U.S. economy, with nearly half of the impact affecting the semiconductor industry.
Following the lifting of the ban, global markets will regain stable supply from China, leading to short-term downward pressure on the prices of these three metals:
Gallium prices are likely to react most quickly. Due to China’s previous supply monopoly, international prices had surged by over 200%. With the resumption of export channels, speculative premiums are expected to gradually fade.
Germanium prices may see a relatively moderate adjustment, as downstream demand spans essential sectors such as fiber optics and infrared equipment, and inventory digestion cycles are longer.
Antimony prices could exhibit the highest volatility, as urgent procurement demand in military applications may slow the pace of price declines.
Despite the restoration of supply, the price levels of these three metals are expected to remain higher than pre-ban levels. One reason is that although the U.S. and its allies have begun building domestic production capacity, the costs of new projects far exceed those of existing Chinese supply. Additionally, countries are likely to strengthen their reserves of critical minerals, leading to sustained expansion in baseline demand. Furthermore, technological advancements, such as third-generation semiconductors and space photovoltaics, will continue to drive demand for high-purity metals.
This policy adjustment echoes China’s recent suspension of export controls on rare earths and other battery minerals, reflecting a global effort to seek a new equilibrium in critical mineral trade. For downstream industries:
U.S. semiconductor companies will secure key raw material supplies, though cost pressures will remain significant.
European defense contractors may see relief from antimony supply bottlenecks, easing constraints on ammunition production capacity.
Chinese smelters must accelerate technological upgrades during the window of export recovery and global capacity expansion.
Analysts note that while the suspension of the ban alleviates the supply crisis, the global trend toward diversifying critical mineral supply chains will not reverse. During the one-year transition period, market pricing mechanisms will recalibrate, but geopolitical factors will remain a “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the metals market.
