Commodities Beat Tech in 2025 Canada Stocks Rally

Weekly Market Recap (May 1) – Mining ETFs Double to $87.4 Billion as Investors Flee Tech Stocks
Published on: Dec 29, 2025

In a year marked by global economic volatility, Canada’s equity market is set to close 2025 with double-digit gains—led not by the traditionally dominant technology sector, but by energy and mining stocks.

Supported by a powerful rally in commodity prices, resource giants such as Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) and Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) have delivered substantial gains in both share performance and cash flow. Meanwhile, technology leaders like Shopify Inc. (SHOP), though still posting growth, have lagged in a higher interest rate environment.

This sector rotation has not only defined this year’s market dynamics but also offers investors a fresh perspective on portfolio positioning heading into 2026.

Energy Spotlight: Cenovus Energy

Calgary-based Cenovus Energy, one of Canada’s largest integrated oil and gas producers, operates across North America and the Asia-Pacific region. Its integrated business model has helped stabilize earnings throughout market fluctuations.

In 2025, strong global demand and rising oil prices boosted revenue and cash flow, while disciplined cost control further strengthened its balance sheet. Robust cash generation has allowed the company to reinvest in growth initiatives while returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Cenovus currently offers a quarterly dividend yielding approximately 3.50%.

Mining Standout: Barrick Gold

Barrick Gold, one of the world’s largest mining companies with operations spanning over a dozen countries, saw its shares surge nearly 180% in 2025—a performance that underscores how dramatically resource stocks have outperformed tech this year.

The rally has been fueled by an explosive rise in precious metals. Gold recently topped US$4,500 per ounce, up about 72% year to date, while silver surpassed US$80 per ounce, gaining 176% over the same period. As classic safe-haven assets, gold and silver attracted strong inflows amid market uncertainty. For low-cost producers like Barrick, higher metal prices translate directly into expanded margins and free cash flow, supporting dividend growth, debt reduction, and new project development. The company’s quarterly dividend currently yields around 1.55%.

Tech’s Relative Underperformance

Shopify, Canada’s largest technology firm and a global e-commerce leader, still posted a solid 51% gain in 2025—a strong return in most contexts. The company reported 32% revenue growth in Q3 and achieved its ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit free cash flow margin, reaching 18%.

Yet, tech as a sector has not kept pace with energy and mining. Unlike commodity-linked stocks, tech performance is less tied to raw material cycles and more influenced by interest rates and growth sentiment. Elevated borrowing costs have compressed valuations and created headwinds for high-growth names, while resource companies have ridden the wave of soaring commodity prices.

Positioning for the Future

While both sectors carry risks, each offers distinct long-term opportunities. Energy and mining stocks are thriving in today’s commodity-upcycle environment, whereas technology continues to deliver robust fundamental growth. A balanced portfolio approach—including exposure to both resurgent resources and resilient tech leaders—may offer investors a prudent path forward in 2026 and beyond.

Canadian Stocks Mining Oil & Gas Technology