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After years of volatility and adjustment, the global commodities market is embracing a new wave of structural opportunities. BMI, a research unit under Fitch Solutions, has released its latest outlook report, forecasting that prices for most minerals and metals will continue their upward trend in 2026, presenting a “cautiously optimistic” outlook. This view aligns with analysts from several international investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, reflecting multiple underlying drivers such as the green energy transition, supply chain restructuring, and shifts in the macroeconomic environment.
Green Transition Drives Shift in Demand Structure
BMI notes that although China’s real estate sector remains under pressure, dampening demand for some industrial metals, robust demand from sectors related to the global net-zero transition will serve as a key counterbalance. Critical minerals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel are directly benefiting from the rapid expansion of electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and renewable energy grids. Data from the International Energy Agency indicates that global clean energy investment in 2025 is expected to be double that in fossil fuels, with solar power alone attracting over USD 450 billion in annual investment. This structural shift not only provides long-term demand support for base metals but also directs mining capital towards critical minerals.
Supply Chain Reshaping and Policy Support
The report highlights that global tariff uncertainty peaked after August 2025 and is expected to further ease in 2026, which will help stabilize the trade environment and lower business costs. However, the security of supply chains for strategic minerals remains a policy focus for many countries. The US assessment of potentially imposing tiered tariffs on refined copper from 2026 to 2028 exemplifies rising resource protectionism. Concurrently, to prevent raw material bottlenecks from hindering key industries such as AI, defense, and robotics, companies in the technology, automotive, and aerospace sectors are actively forming alliances with mining firms through offtake agreements and equity investments. This “industrial capital + resource end” cooperation model is set to become a significant feature of the M&A market in 2026.
Highlights for Both Precious and Base Metals
In the precious metals sector, BMI expects the average annual gold price to be higher than in 2025. However, as the momentum of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle weakens, gold prices may retreat below $4,000/oz by year-end. Central bank purchases and geopolitical safe-haven demand will remain core supportive factors. For base metals, although reduced volatility in the US Dollar Index may cap upside potential, a recovery in global infrastructure investment and manufacturing resilience—particularly grid upgrades in Europe and the US, and expansion of EV production capacity—should keep metals like copper and aluminum in a strong, range-bound pattern.
Institutional Consensus: A New Capital Cycle Has Begun
Recent reports from institutions like Morgan Stanley similarly emphasize that the commodities market is entering a new phase characterized by “demand divergence and supply lag.” On one hand, traditional energy prices are stabilizing due to supply-demand rebalancing, objectively reducing cost pressures for global industrial activity. On the other hand, the expansion pace of green metal supply chains still struggles to match explosively growing demand, providing fundamental support for price increases.
Furthermore, changes in policy environments within resource-rich countries—such as African nations strengthening local mineral processing requirements—while raising investment costs, are also pushing multinational mining companies towards deeper localization cooperation, thereby steering the global resource development model towards greater sustainability.
In summary, the optimistic outlook for the commodities market in 2026 is not merely a cyclical recurrence but a joint reflection of profound transformations in energy structures, industrial policies, and global trade patterns. Against a backdrop of coexisting volatility and opportunity, identifying and leveraging these structural trends will be key for investors.
