McKinsey Report Shows Nearly 75% of Global Mining M&A Flow to This Region

Published on: Jan 14, 2026
Author: Caroline Kong

According to a new report jointly released by McKinsey & Company and the Future Minerals Forum, global mining mergers and acquisitions reached approximately $30 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a substantial 74% of the capital flowing to Latin America.

The “Future Minerals Barometer Report 2025” tracks supply-chain readiness across Africa, West Asia, Central Asia, and Latin America. The report reveals a growing contradiction: over 50% of global critical mineral reserves are located in the so-called “Super Region” (Africa, West Asia, and Central Asia), yet it attracts the lowest exploration investment worldwide, heightening long-term supply risks.

Since 2021, the value of mining transactions in Latin America has surged by over 200%, while Africa has seen a decline of nearly 80%, indicating a clear shift of capital toward regions perceived as more stable. This trend is closely linked to investors’ increasing focus on capital discipline and permitting certainty. Citing McKinsey’s “Global Materials Perspective” released last October, the report notes that mining productivity has improved by only 1% annually since 2018, further explaining investors’ cautious approach.

The report warns that critical mineral supply chains are under increasing strain, driven by the energy transition, digitalization, and rising defense needs. Demand for copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earths is growing faster than new supply can be brought online, while lengthy permitting processes, infrastructure gaps, capital intensity, and policy uncertainty continue to hinder project development.

The report points out that over 45% of refined production capacity for electric vehicle materials is concentrated in a single region, increasing exposure to geopolitical risks, trade disruptions, and price volatility. Duncan Wanblad, CEO of Anglo American, stated that global copper demand is projected to rise by 75% to 56 million tonnes per year by 2050. This would require the development of approximately 60 new mines equivalent in scale to Peru’s Quellaveco over the next decade to offset declining output from aging assets.

Jeffrey Lorch, a partner at McKinsey, noted that the barometer integrates market data and stakeholder sentiment, providing companies with a practical roadmap to navigate volatility. Chris Coulter, CEO of GlobeScan, believes the “Super Region” faces significant challenges but also holds substantial opportunities if gaps in policy, financing, and infrastructure can be addressed.

The report estimates that the world will need cumulative investments of around $5 trillion by 2035 to meet critical minerals demand, while current exploration spending remains 40% to 50% below required levels. Compounding this shortfall is the average timeline of 16 years from discovery to first production, meaning deposits discovered today are unlikely to make a meaningful contribution to 2030 or 2035 climate targets.

Industry leaders emphasize that accelerating development will depend on regulatory harmonization, new funding mechanisms, and deeper collaboration among governments, miners, and investors to unlock supply potential in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

 

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