USA Rare Earth Stock Defies Broader Market Sell-Off. Time to Buy?

Is The Metals Company Still the King of Deep Sea Mining?
Published on: Jan 20, 2026

In a striking display of resilience, shares of USA Rare Earth (USAR) surged on Tuesday, bucking a sharp downturn in the broader market. The stock closed up 6.8%, after soaring as much as 14.6% intraday. This rally stood in stark contrast to the major indices, with the S&P 500 down 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.5% by afternoon trading.

The catalyst for this impressive gains was significant progress in the company’s European strategy. USA Rare Earth announced in a pre-market press release that its subsidiary, Less Common Metals Europe SAS, will build a new metal and alloy production facility in Lacq, France. The plant, with a planned annual capacity of 3,750 metric tons, is scheduled to begin construction this year.

The project’s most compelling aspect is the substantial backing from the French government. Subsidies are slated to cover up to 45% of eligible equipment costs and provide up to €130 million (approximately $152.6 million) for real estate expenses. The government may also fund employee hiring and training. This strong support aims to establish “Europe’s first metal-making platform” for rare-earth magnets, directly addressing strategic goals to reduce the continent’s reliance on China, which currently dominates roughly 90% of global rare-earth processing.

The new facility is designed for synergy. It will be co-located with the Carester SAS oxide processing plant, also in Lacq, which is scheduled for commissioning in late 2026. The planned workflow involves Carester processing rare-earth oxides from miners before transferring the material next door to the LCM facility for conversion into metals, alloys, and magnets.

Speculation or Opportunity?

Despite the bullish news, USA Rare Earth remains a highly speculative bet. The company, with a market valuation of around $2.5 billion, has yet to generate any revenue. Forecasts suggest it may not reach profitability until at least 2030.

However, the investment thesis is gaining clarity amid rising geopolitical tensions. As the U.S. and its Western allies actively seek to bolster domestic mining and refining capabilities to break China’s supply chain dominance, USA Rare Earth is positioning itself as a key player. The tangible financial support from the French government, a clear market-entry strategy in Europe, and an integrated local production plan present a credible long-term narrative.

Tuesday’s stock surge was a direct market reaction to this potent mix of news. For risk-tolerant investors, these developments could signal a worthwhile, though high-stakes, opportunity. Yet, the journey ahead remains fraught with significant execution risk and ongoing capital needs. Investors must carefully weigh the potential for market-beating performance against the company’s current pre-revenue status and projected losses.

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