After a Stock Price Drop of Over 40%, Is MP Materials an Opportunity or a Risk?

黄金和关键金属
Published on: Mar 24, 2026
Author: Amy Liu

The United States is advancing an ambitious “mine-to-magnet” strategy, investing in mining companies to secure domestic production, and MP Materials is one of the beneficiaries. Since its stock price peak last October, the company’s shares have fallen by 47%, and this pullback may offer an opportunity for investors to take note.

MP Materials leads domestic rare earth magnet production

MP Materials holds a unique position in the U.S. rare earth magnet sector, being the only domestic supplier with large-scale rare earth mining and processing facilities in North America. Its operations are based at the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and processing facility in California. Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) is a key raw material for rare earth magnets used in electric vehicles, robotics, defense, and other fields.

Last year, MP Materials entered into a landmark public-private partnership agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense, under which the Department of Defense purchases its NdPr products. According to the agreement, the Department of Defense established a price floor of $110 per kilogram for these critical products, with a term of approximately 10 years. In exchange, the U.S. government received a 15% equity stake in MP Materials.

The company is undergoing a transformation from a concentrate exporter to a vertically integrated “mine-to-magnet” manufacturer. In the past, the company mined ore in California and shipped it to China for processing; now, its entire supply chain will be localized. Currently, MP Materials retains the mined ore domestically, performing separation and refining at the Mountain Pass facility. Last year, the company achieved a record production of 2,599 metric tons of NdPr oxide, the raw material used to manufacture magnets.

Its facility in Fort Worth, Texas, has begun commercial production of rare earth metals and alloys, with a current annual magnet production capacity of 1,000 metric tons. MP Materials plans to expand the facility’s annual magnet production capacity to 3,000 metric tons. Meanwhile, another facility, named “10X,” is in the planning stages and, once completed, will increase the company’s annual magnet production capacity by an additional 10,000 metric tons.

MP Materials invests in America’s future magnet production capacity

With its mining and processing facilities already established in California and Texas, MP Materials is currently one of the most promising companies in the U.S. “mine-to-magnet” sector. The company holds a first-mover advantage and, in addition to its agreement with the Department of Defense, has secured contracts with companies such as Apple and General Motors. Analysts project that the company’s revenue could more than double in 2026 to $508 million, and double again by 2028, surpassing $1 billion.

However, the company still faces challenges in expanding its manufacturing capabilities through the “10X” facility, which is expected to begin commissioning in 2028. As the company ramps up its manufacturing capacity, there is execution risk associated with the stock. But for aggressive investors who understand this risk, the recent decline in the stock price may present an opportunity to buy into this domestic mining stock.

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