District Metals Corp. (TSXV:V.DMX. Nasdaq: DMXSE SDB)
Advancing the Largest Undeveloped Uranium Deposit in the World
On May 15, U.S. Antimony (NYSE: UAMY) saw its stock price plunge more than 10% in a single day, hitting a seven-day losing streak during the session. The trigger for this sell-off was the company’s first-quarter earnings report released that day – revenue fell year-over-year to $6.8 million, with a net loss of as much as $11.3 million, a far cry from the $19.7 million in revenue analysts had expected. For any company delivering such a disappointing earnings result, it’s hardly surprising that the market votes with its feet.
However, simply attributing the stock decline to an “earnings blowup” might miss something more important. The real question that needs to be asked is: has the long-term investment thesis for this company – the only antimony producer in North America – been broken?
Why the earnings “blowup”? Growing pains during expansion
The first-quarter results were indeed ugly. Revenue fell from $7 million a year ago to $6.8 million, with antimony sales volume down about 23% year-over-year to 279,000 pounds. Gross margin plummeted from 34% to 16%, and the net loss exceeded $11 million. CFO Rick Isaak explained during the earnings call that the loss was primarily due to approximately $4.8 million in non-cash equity incentive expenses and about $4.1 million in unrealized losses from an equity investment in Larvotto. At the same time, the company spent heavily to expand inventory-surged from $12.5 million at the end of 2025 to $22 million at quarter−end, consuming $12.1 million in operating cash flow.
More importantly, the first-quarter results did not include any revenue from the $245 million Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) contract, which is expected to begin contributing in the second half of the year. This is what CEO Gary Evans called the “bumps in the road” of a construction period – during the land-grabbing phase, the book numbers are inevitably unattractive.
Unique strategic positioning
Investors must recognize one fact: in North America, U.S. Antimony has virtually no meaningful competitors. The company is currently the only antimony producer in North America and the only fully integrated, DOD-approved antimony miner and processor. Its competitor, Perpetua Resources, is expected to start production at its Stibnite project in Idaho no sooner than 2028, leaving a window of at least two years before it can achieve large-scale supply.
From the perspective of antimony supply-demand fundamentals, the external environment is highly favorable. China’s ban on antimony exports to the United States took effect in December 2024. Although China announced a suspension of the ban until November 2026 in late 2025, the uncertainty in global supply chains has never dissipated. Global spot antimony prices currently remain stable around $51.80 per kilogram.Although they have retreated from the near $60,000 per tonne historical peak seen in mid-2025, prices are still far above the 2020 average. As the most expensive antimony market in the world, the U.S. market’s price premium structure gives U.S. Antimony considerable pricing power.
Catalysts on the way: Defense contract and production expansion
The company’s core value does not come from first-quarter results, but from a series of catalysts about to materialize. First, the $245 million DLA contract has entered the execution phase, with the first two delivery orders completed and $12 million in sales orders received. The company’s Thompson Falls expansion project is expected to have all nine furnaces fully operational by mid-July, at which point monthly production capacity will be approximately 230 tonnes. The company reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $125 million – meaning that revenue over the next three quarters would need to grow by more than 1,700% from the first quarter. Although this target is aggressive, it has a foundation for realization given the DLA contract beginning to pay out and the new capacity coming fully online.
Cautious in the short term, optimistic in the long term
As of mid-May 2026, the investment thesis for U.S. Antimony faces a core test: is the capital market willing to pay the time premium for “strategic scarcity”?
In the short term, risks cannot be ignored. The stock has an extremely high price-to-earnings ratio; its current market capitalization of approximately $1.4 billion implies a price-to-sales ratio of about 36x. Any operational progress falling short of expectations could trigger sharp volatility. The pace of government contract execution in the second half of 2026, whether the Thompson Falls expansion ramps up smoothly, and whether the suspension of China’s antimony export ban will be extended upon expiration – these are variables that need close monitoring.
But from a longer-term perspective, true “de-risking” of the U.S. antimony supply chain will take at least several more years. During this period, as the only available North American supplier, U.S. Antimony’s strategic value is irreplaceable.
