SLAM Exploration Ltd. (TSXV: SXL)
‘Exploring for critical elements and precious metals in New Brunswick, Canada.’
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio is doubling down on gold. His advice: allocate 5% to 15% of your portfolio to the barbarous relic. The twist? Gold has fallen more than 10% since the U.S.-Iran war began nine weeks ago.
After a nearly 70% surge last year, the metal is up barely 5% in 2026. The traditional safe haven has acted like anything but. Yet Dalio insists the case for gold has never been stronger.
For Dalio, the war is noise. The signal is the steady erosion of dollar hegemony. As he puts it, the real tailwind for gold comes from “the growth of transactions outside the dollar system.” Yuan‑settled trade is rising. U.S. sanctions have pushed more countries to look for alternatives. And the global trade order is being rewritten.
The numbers back him up. The dollar index fell almost 10% in 2025 and hit a four‑year low earlier this year. Yes, the conflict has temporarily boosted the greenback, pushing gold below $4,600. But Dalio calls that a short‑term blip.
“Dedollarization is a long-term structural shift that won’t reverse with one war,” he argues. As more nations seek non‑dollar alternatives, gold — a sovereign‑free asset — will be repriced higher.
Dalio warns that the U.S. economy is already showing classic signs of stagflation. Since the war began, the S&P 500 is up nearly 4%, suggesting corporate earnings remain solid. But oil prices have surged, fueling inflation, while the labor market shows signs of weakening. Slowing growth combined with sticky inflation puts traditional portfolios in a bind: stocks hate weak growth, bonds hate high inflation.
He then zooms out. Artificial intelligence may boost productivity, but it could also widen the wealth gap and fuel social unrest. And his “Big Cycle” framework warns that the world is in a late-stage cycle marked by high debt and rising internal conflicts — a phase that often ends in major economic and political restructuring.
“Ordinary people cannot avoid these complex changes. Diversification is no longer an option — it’s a necessity,” Dalio says. Gold, which depends neither on corporate earnings nor on interest rates, serves as an effective hedge when traditional financial assets turn volatile. That’s why he recommends a 5–15% allocation, not a heavy bet.
Short‑term, gold is hostage to the Strait of Hormuz. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen puts it bluntly: “Precious metals are now moving almost in lockstep with energy markets.”
Peace talks failed to happen. President Trump is reportedly preparing a long‑term blockade of the strait — though domestic pressure could force another U‑turn. As Dalio puts it, “The U.S. wants to exit this war as a winner, but time is running out.”
Hansen adds that while gold looks weak today, the long‑run drivers — dedollarization, high global debt, and chronic geopolitics — haven’t changed.
Dalio’s advice is simple: don’t try to time the bottom. Just put 5% to 15% of your portfolio into gold as a permanent anchor. Most investors don’t need physical bars. Gold ETFs, mining stocks, or even a precious‑metals mutual fund will do.
One caveat: gold pays no dividend or interest. Go too heavy, and you could drag on long‑term compounding. The 5%–15% range gives you room to adjust.
