Weekly Market Recap (May 22) – Did China and the US Seal a Rare Earth Deal?

Middle East Chaos Creates Two Big Winners: US LNG Booms, China’s Green Exports Surge 70%
Published on: May 21, 2026

Recent disclosure of bilateral summit details has fueled market speculation that China and the United States have reached a formal rare earth cooperation agreement, as Washington claimed Beijing will address America’s shortages of critical rare earth supplies. Nevertheless, contrasting official remarks, internal U.S. industrial frictions and volatile capital market moves indicate only preliminary consensus has been secured. No legally binding deal is finalized, and strategic rivalry over rare earth resources still lingers.

The White House said China would resolve supply shortfalls of key rare earth products such as yttrium, scandium and neodymium, and negotiate access to rare earth production equipment and technologies. China delivered a prudent response, stating it will maintain export controls under domestic laws and only approve qualified civilian-related applications. The two sides agreed to negotiate legitimate concerns from each party, yet no formal written agreement has been signed.

Recently, METALS 100 has invited Michael Dehn, Executive Chairman of Total Metals Corp (TSXV: TT), to share the company’s latest updates and future development plans in depth. Total Metals is advancing copper, zinc, gold, and silver projects in Northwestern Ontario’s prolific Red Lake and Pick Lake districts. In 2026, the company expanded its critical minerals portfolio through the acquisition of the high-grade Pick Lake Property and completed an 8,408-metre, 25-hole drill program at its wholly owned Electrolode Project. Pick Lake covers 5,260 hectares within the Winston Lake greenstone belt and hosts high-grade mineralization extending to depths of 1,200 metres.

Boasting dominant reserves and sophisticated refining technology of heavy rare earths, China holds irreplaceable strengths in the sector. It will be extremely difficult for the U.S. to build a self-sufficient domestic rare earth industrial chain in a short period. Washington also suffers from conflicting internal strategies. The Pentagon weighs canceling an $80 million loan plan for a local rare earth refiner, questioning the firm’s technical scalability and revenue outlook. In opposition, the White House argued excessive risk assessment curbs the growth of innovative domestic enterprises. Such inconsistent policymaking weakens the feasibility of a solid cross-border rare earth deal.

Global rare earth stocks experienced drastic swings, mirroring divergent market judgments on the alleged deal. U.S. rare earth shares first retreated amid eased bilateral tension expectations, on worries that looser supply would weaken the incentive for domestic industrial independence. The market sentiment soon reversed, with USA Rare Earth (USAR) climbing more than 7% and MP Materials jumping nearly 9.2%, as investors recognized the U.S. will persist in building independent mineral supply capacity.

Chinese domestic rare earth stocks also staged a late rally. Market participants believe moderate supply opening for civilian use will lift manufacturers’ profitability. Investors generally refuse to confirm a conclusive rare earth pact, acknowledging temporary supply adjustments cannot reverse the long-term competitive pattern.

Rare earth consultation only constitutes a minor part of Sino-U.S. economic talks, while semiconductor discussions see no tangible progress. Both countries focus primarily on advancing tariff arrangement extension. The current coordination is merely a temporary consensus instead of a definitive deal. With uncertainties remaining over export rules and industrial competition, strategic competition between China and the U.S. in the rare earth field will continue for a long time ahead.

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