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Drilling Value in the Silver State
Finally, SpaceX is about to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker “SPCX.” The Elon Musk–led space exploration giant is raising at least $75 billion at a valuation of $1.78 trillion, marking the largest initial public offering in history. According to reports, the offering has been more than two times oversubscribed, with 30% of shares allocated to retail investors — a rare and generous portion. Before deciding whether to participate, here are ten essential facts every retail investor should know.
SpaceX operates across three divisions: Space Launch, Starlink, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The Space Launch segment, anchored by reusable rocket technology, has completed 650 orbital missions as of March this year. Starlink, the low-orbit satellite internet service, has deployed over 10,000 satellites and surpassed 10 million subscribers. The AI division originated from Musk’s $250 billion acquisition of xAI and now encompasses social platform X, the Grok intelligent model, multiple data centers, and plans to build a Terafab chip manufacturing facility in partnership with Tesla and Intel.
Currently, Starlink is SpaceX’s only profitable segment. It generated $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of roughly $7.2 billion. In the first month of 2026 alone, operating profit reached $1.2 billion. However, average revenue per user (ARPU) has declined from $86 to $66 as the company introduced lower cost international plans.
The AI division posted an operating loss of about $6.4 billion in 2025, with capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion. Yet Musk’s ambition is immense — he plans to launch data centers into space and achieve full stack autonomy from chips to intelligence. In its prospectus, SpaceX claims its total addressable market is $28.5 trillion, nearly the size of annual U.S. GDP, with AI accounting for $26.5 trillion of that, primarily from enterprise applications.
Citing anonymous sources, the Financial Times reported that lead underwriter Goldman Sachs predicted during the roadshow that SpaceX’s AI revenue could surge from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030, with total company revenue rising from $18.7 billion to $474 billion. On that basis, investors would be buying at roughly four times 2030 revenue, far below the 96 times 2025 revenue multiple.
SpaceX recently announced a three-year agreement with Anthropic to lease data center computing power for $1.25 billion per month. It also reached a separate lease deal with Google for $920 million per month. Together, these two agreements represent $2.2 billion in monthly recurring revenue, or more than $26 billion annually. However, Google’s contract includes a 90-day cancellation clause starting in 2027, so it is not fully locked in.
Through Class B super-voting shares, Musk controls more than 85% of voting power in the company. After the IPO, that stake will still stand at 82%. This means investors must place their trust in Musk’s leadership — it is virtually impossible to remove him as CEO.
Reuters reported that the roadshow attracted more than two times oversubscription, with investor demand reaching $150 billion. Underwriters also have an option to purchase an additional $11.7 billion in shares. More unusually, SpaceX allocated 30% of the offering to retail investors (the typical range is 5%–10%). Retail investors can subscribe through Robinhood, SoFi, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley’s E*TRADE.
Because of its enormous market capitalization, most index providers have eased their fast-entry rules. According to MarketWatch, SpaceX could be added to nearly all major U.S. stock indexes about three weeks after trading begins. That would force index funds and ETFs tracking those benchmarks to buy the stock, absorbing a large chunk of the free float early on and potentially supporting the share price.
The S&P 500 considered changing its rules to accelerate SpaceX’s inclusion but ultimately did not pass the proposal. As a result, the company must wait a full year of trading and achieve profitability before becoming eligible.
Greg Boutle, head of U.S. equity derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas, estimates that retail and passive investors may sell roughly $50 billion of other stocks to raise cash for SpaceX. This “liquidity suction” effect could put pressure on the broader market.
SpaceX has implemented a phased lockup schedule: after the June 30 earnings release on the following trading day, locked-up insiders can sell 20% of their shares. If the stock price rises 30% above the IPO price, they can sell an additional 10%. Thereafter, 7% can be sold on days 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135. All remaining shares become free after 180 days. Musk himself is not subject to this schedule but must wait one year before selling any shares.
The SpaceX IPO is undoubtedly the most significant capital markets event of 2026. For retail investors, it offers an unprecedented opportunity to participate, but it also comes with high valuation, complex business structure, and potential volatility. Understanding these ten key points is the first step toward making a rational investment decision.
