As ASML Holding (ASML) prepares to report second-quarter results on Wednesday, July 15, investors are betting that another upward revision to its full-year outlook will not only propel its own shares higher but also provide a powerful tailwind for chipmakers such as Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD. The Dutch company, which holds a monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines essential for advanced chip production, has already surged 60% year-to-date, ranking among the top performers in the Nasdaq-100 index.
ASML sits at a critical junction of the semiconductor supply chain. It is the world’s sole supplier of EUV equipment, a technology that uses mirrors instead of lenses to print billions of transistors onto silicon wafers with extreme precision. As chipmakers race to produce ever smaller nodes — 7 nanometers and below — for AI data centers, smartphones and PCs, EUV tools have become indispensable. Leading foundries, memory manufacturers like SK Hynix and Micron, and integrated device makers all depend on ASML’s machines to fabricate faster, more power-efficient chips.
The company’s first-quarter performance underscored that strength. Revenue came in at €8.76 billion (roughly $10 billion), up 13% from a year earlier, while net income rose 5.4% to €2.84 billion. Gross margins reached 53%, hitting the high end of guidance. Backed by insatiable chip demand and accelerating customer expansion plans, CEO Christophe Fouquet highlighted that “demand for chips is outpacing supply.” Following those results, ASML lifted its full-year 2026 net sales forecast for the second time this year, raising the range to €36 billion–€40 billion from the previous €34 billion–€39 billion.
Now the focus shifts squarely to forward guidance. For the second quarter, ASML has projected sales of €8.4 billion to €9.0 billion with gross margins of 51% to 52%. While meeting those numbers matters, the real catalyst will be whether management raises its annual outlook once more. Analysts surveyed by Yahoo Finance expect third-quarter revenue to reach as much as €10.34 billion. If ASML’s commentary confirms that customers are further accelerating their capacity builds and the full-year forecast ticks higher, the stock could break out — and the optimism would likely ripple across the entire chip sector.
Because ASML is a bellwether for global AI infrastructure spending, its outlook carries outsized weight. An upgraded forecast would signal that foundries and memory producers are ramping up investments with greater urgency, delivering supply-side confidence to chip designers like Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD. That, in turn, could trigger a broad-based re-rating of semiconductor shares.
Long-term trends also favor ASML. The market for advanced process nodes is projected to grow at an annual rate of nearly 16% through 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights, a trend that has already prompted analysts to repeatedly upgrade the company’s long-term earnings estimates. At 48 times forward earnings, the stock is admittedly expensive, but many investors view the premium as justified by the structural growth story underpinning AI computing. As Wednesday’s report approaches, the question is less about whether demand is robust, and more about just how high ASML is willing to raise the bar.
