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Copper prices shattered records in New York on Tuesday, with the front-month Comex contract touching a historic high before pulling back slightly. September futures rose as much as 1.8% to $6.7270 per pound, equivalent to about $14,830 a tonne, surpassing the previous record of $6.7140 set on August 12. The contract settled up 1.6% at $6.7125, commanding a premium of nearly 4%, or roughly $550 a tonne, over the London benchmark.
In London, the three-month LME contract added 0.4% to close at $14,251 a tonne, after finishing Monday at $14,201, its highest ever closing price. During the session it traded as high as $14,343, within 1.3% of January’s all-time peak of $14,527.50.
The relentless pull of US import tariffs continues to drain metal from the rest of the world into American warehouses. LME on-warrant inventories had surged 74.5% in a single week, and the cash premium over three-month metal collapsed from a five-year high of $434 during this month’s squeeze to $248. But the relief lasted barely a week: 51,400 tonnes of withdrawal orders hit the LME system on Monday, part of roughly 65,400 tonnes earmarked for departure in recent days, as copper resumed its transatlantic march toward Comex. Inventories there have climbed for 46 consecutive days to a record 675,185 tonnes.
US refined copper imports reached 885,000 tonnes in the first half, up 3% from a year earlier and on track to approach the 2025 record of 1.64 million tonnes. Traders are positioning for another round of tariff uncertainty, with duties on refined copper of 15% set for January 2027 and 30% from 2028 still on the table in Washington.
CRU had projected a global surplus of 639,000 tonnes for 2026, but now views the market as at best balanced. “If imports keep coming in as they have been, then it’s going to look like a deficit market in reality,” said principal copper analyst Robert Edwards. Macquarie strategist Alice Fox noted the record Comex stockpile would take “years” to consume. Bank of China International’s Amelia Fu expects new record highs in the coming weeks or months, though Glencore Chief Executive Gary Nagle argued that a tariff announcement, whichever direction it goes, would cool prices simply by removing uncertainty.
Equity markets reflected the squeeze. Southern Copper has surged 15% over the past five sessions, touching a record $220.78 after a 6.3% jump on Friday. Its market capitalization of about $183 billion now exceeds Rio Tinto’s roughly $180 billion and trails only BHP’s $246 billion. Freeport has gained nearly 19% this week and is trading near all-time highs, while First Quantum, Ivanhoe Mines and Teck Resources each rose about 11%. Zijin Mining fell 2.5% in New York on Tuesday after warning that its 1.2-million-tonne mined copper target is under pressure, with flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo expected to cut attributable output by up to 57,000 tonnes this year.
From a technical perspective, Comex copper is up 19% in 2026 and roughly 50% over the past year. Prices are holding above the 50-day moving average and testing resistance near $6.70. A breakout above $6.80 would open the path toward the $8 area, while a drop below $6.45 could trigger a retreat toward $6.20, with the 200-day moving average near $6. A softer dollar and accelerated infrastructure spending in China are providing support, though elevated Treasury yields and Middle East tensions are limiting gains.
Longer term, demand from artificial intelligence and power grid expansion remains a key driver. S&P Global expects copper consumption from data centres to rise from 1.1 million tonnes in 2025 to 2.5 million tonnes by 2040. With new mine development timelines stretching over many years, supply growth is likely to remain constrained. If current trends continue, the copper market could tighten again despite recent inventory increases.
