Among the major events of 2024, Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election is set to have a profound impact on global political and economic dynamics. His policy inclinations will also significantly influence the mining industry, especially in the critical minerals sector. Despite Trump branding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as a “green scam” and pledging to repeal it once back in the White House, the bipartisan consensus on the importance of critical minerals is unlikely to be overturned—even under the new Trump administration.
To be precise, Trump does not oppose the development of critical minerals. On the contrary, during his campaign, he explicitly promised to support the mining industry and acknowledged the strategic importance of critical minerals. While Trump’s tariff policies are expected to have significant repercussions on global supply chains, he is also likely to prioritize domestic supply chain development, reducing dependency on imports of critical minerals and strengthening supply security.
In 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released an updated list of 50 critical minerals, adding nickel and zinc to the prior list of 35 from 2018. As defined under the 2020 Energy Act, critical minerals are non-fuel minerals or materials deemed essential to the economic or national security of the U.S., with supply chains susceptible to significant disruption.
However, the reality is that the U.S. remains heavily dependent on China for mineral elements vital to emerging industries such as semiconductors and clean energy. Back in 2020, then-President Trump declared that the nation’s reliance on “foreign adversaries” for critical minerals posed a national emergency, pushing initiatives toward greater self-sufficiency in metals. Therefore, it is reasonable to predict that Trump, in his second term, will not reverse this trajectory. Instead, he is likely to accelerate efforts in this area.
To rebuild its domestic metals production capacity, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Department of Defense (DOD) have already invested billions of dollars. DOE funding has primarily focused on raw materials for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, such as lithium, manganese, and graphite. DOD funding, meanwhile, covers a broader range of specialized elements, from antimony to zirconium. The Biden administration has proudly stated that, thanks to government support, companies have announced $120 billion in investments in domestic battery and critical minerals capacity.
However, it’s important to note that most of these investments remain concentrated in downstream aspects of the supply chain.
According to research firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the U.S. has announced 17 new battery manufacturing plants since the IRA came into effect in July 2022, potentially increasing production capacity by 68% by 2030. Yet, when it comes to sourcing the metals required for these factories, most federally funded initiatives focus on enhancing existing recycling capacity rather than creating new primary smelting projects.
Even so, a new Trump administration is expected to take a much more aggressive stance on critical mineral imports tied to China.
For instance, much of Indonesia’s nickel production is now controlled—either directly or indirectly—by Chinese entities. However, Depending on the structure of the joint venture between Ford, Vale and China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, nickel produced at new facilities in Indonesia could even count as IRA-compliant and qualify for federal EV subsidies.
Yet, under the “Make America Great Again” focus of a new Republican administration, such ambiguous sourcing practices are unlikely to persist. It is increasingly evident that Trump 2.0 will further double down on efforts for U.S. mineral self-sufficiency while possibly accepting that not all IRA-related funds are part of a “green scam.”
In summary, critical minerals have become a cornerstone of U.S. industrial and strategic policy, transcending party lines. Even under a Trump administration, this bipartisan priority will continue to shape the national and global mining industry’s future.
