The tariff offensive unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump has dealt a heavy blow to copper prices. Last week’s wild swings in the copper market were just a microcosm of global market turbulence under Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies.
As an economic bellwether, copper now faces dual pressures: the market must digest widespread tariff threats on global manufacturing while also bracing for potential U.S.-specific tariffs on copper imports. Behind the extreme price volatility lies a rush by traders to ship copper to the U.S. ahead of uncertain tariffs, tightening spot supplies in regions like China.
On April 7, after China imposed retaliatory tariffs, three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) plunged to a 17-month low of $8,105 per ton. But as the U.S. announced a 90-day tariff suspension for most countries—particularly with exemptions for electronics—copper prices violently rebounded above $9,000.
Copper’s sharp reaction to tariffs reflects deep market concerns over manufacturing and demand prospects. Citi’s latest forecast slashed its three-month copper price target to $8,000, warning that commodity markets have yet to fully price in potential demand shocks. An April 7 report noted “many similarities” between the current situation and the 2015 deflationary spiral that drove copper down to $4,000. More critically, no one can predict Trump’s next tariff target—and this uncertainty itself is suppressing copper prices.
Citi’s analyst team expects copper’s decline to slow significantly in the next three months, citing Trump’s temporary halt of aggressive “reciprocal tariffs” against most nations, China’s large-scale bargain-hunting for copper in new energy and infrastructure projects, and U.S. stockpiling pressure causing persistent scrap copper shortages.
JPMorgan, however, maintains that industrial metals will remain under short-term pressure. Its analysts remain bearish, projecting Q2 copper prices to average just $8,300/ton.
