Ship tracking data shows that amid the global energy shift reshaped by the trade war initiated by Trump, China has become the largest buyer of crude oil transported via the Trans Mountain (TMX) pipeline expansion project from Canada. Since its launch on May 1, 2024, this energy artery—costing over USD 24 billion and held by the Canadian government—has significantly expanded Canada’s crude oil export map toward Asian markets.
According to energy data firm Kpler, after the pipeline operated at full capacity from June last year, Canada’s daily crude oil exports to China surged from an average of 7,000 barrels over the previous decade to 207,000 barrels, while exports to the U.S. during the same period were about 173,000 barrels per day. This shift shattered previous market expectations that the U.S. would remain the primary buyer of crude oil via the pipeline.
Philippe Rheault, Director of the China Studies Institute at the University of Alberta, noted that the protectionist policies of the Trump administration have significantly enhanced the appeal of Canadian crude oil to Chinese buyers. Analysts believe that Chinese refineries are motivated both by the desire to avoid the sanctions risks imposed by the U.S. on countries like Venezuela, and by the need to reduce excessive reliance on Russian energy.
As the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, Canada has traditionally relied on north-south pipelines, with 90% of its crude oil delivered to the U.S. The expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline not only increased its capacity to 890,000 barrels per day but also spurred a 60% year-on-year growth in Canadian crude oil exports to non-U.S. countries in 2024, setting a record of 183,000 barrels per day. Besides China, other key Asian buyers include South Korea, Japan, India, and Brunei.
Although the current crude oil shipments have not yet been included on the U.S. tariff list, previous short-term tariff threats and controversial remarks by the Trump administration about “annexing Canada” have continuously pushed Canada to diversify its energy exports. Statistics show that in 2024 the Trans Mountain pipeline operated at an average utilization rate of 77%, slightly below the expected 83%, primarily due to high transportation fees resulting from construction cost overruns.
Skip York, Chief Strategist at energy consulting firm Turner, Mason & Company, predicted that given China’s urgent need for stable crude oil supplies, the additional capacity of 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day from the pipeline’s expansion will mainly serve the Asian market. Currently, pipeline operators are planning further expansion efforts, with an anticipated utilization rate of 92% by 2027. However, industry insiders note that plans for new coastal export terminals in Canada still face multiple regulatory, financial, and political obstacles.
