Since former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tariff investigation on copper imports (a critical material for electric vehicles, power grids, and construction) in February 2025, copper prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) have surged significantly. On March 26, COMEX copper hit a record high of $11,633 per ton, marking a premium of over $1,570 compared to the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark contract. Although the premium has since narrowed to $600/ton, traders indicate that this level still offers substantial profit margins.
U.S. government data shows that copper imports in March reached 123,000 tons, far exceeding January’s 76,000 tons and February’s 58,000 tons. Sharon Ding, Head of China Basic Materials Research at UBS, predicts that due to the price gap and tariff uncertainty, an additional 250,000 to 300,000 tons of copper will be shipped to the U.S. between March and May.
To avoid potential tariffs, traders have shifted from container shipping to bulk carriers, reducing delivery times from 40 days to just two weeks. Data reveals that 95,000 tons and 127,000 tons of copper arrived in the U.S. via bulk carriers in March and April, respectively—well above the January-February average of 44,000 tons.
Notably, Germany and Spain exported 10,000 tons and 4,500 tons of copper to the U.S. in March-April, despite not being traditional suppliers. Chile also saw a significant increase in shipments, with approximately 72,000 tons arriving in the first half of May.
Analysts widely agree that as long as the COMEX premium persists and the tariff threat remains, abnormal trade flows will continue. Ben Ayre, an analyst at Kpler, notes that late May could see even more unconventional shipments, as sending refined copper to the U.S. remains highly attractive.
Meanwhile, copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have plunged 60% since mid-February to 171,000 tons, partly due to diverted flows from China to the U.S. Marcus Garvey, Head of Commodities Strategy at Macquarie, states that the current premium remains far above normal levels, continuing to incentivize traders to prioritize U.S. market supply.
