The year 2025 has undoubtedly been highly rewarding for investors in manganese producer Jupiter Mines Ltd (ASX: JMS). The company’s stock performance has been particularly outstanding, surging from $0.14 per share in January to the current $0.22, achieving a remarkable 57% gain in just over seven months—far outpacing the 7.3% rise in the benchmark All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) during the same period. This relatively unknown mining company has recently garnered special attention from analysts at Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG).
Manganese plays an irreplaceable role in steel manufacturing, primarily used to enhance the hardness and strength of iron alloys. Notably, with the rapid growth of the electric vehicle and energy storage industries, manganese is becoming increasingly vital in the lithium-ion battery supply chain. Through its 49.9% stake in South Africa’s Tshipi manganese mine, Jupiter has become the world’s largest listed pure-play manganese producer. The Tshipi mine, operational since 2012, remains one of the longest-running manganese mines globally.
Jupiter’s recently released Q4 FY2025 activity report showed that while quarterly mine production was 5% below expectations, sales volume exceeded forecasts by a strong 31%, fully offsetting the shortfall. This drove the company’s quarterly EBITDA to $40.9 million, far surpassing Macquarie’s $24 million estimate, while net profit after tax (NPAT) reached $25.9 million—more than double analysts’ predictions. However, Macquarie remains cautious about the manganese market outlook, noting a 4% decline in manganese prices compared to the previous three months.
Despite assigning an “Outperform” rating, Macquarie set a modest 12-month price target of $0.23, implying only a 4.5% upside from the current $0.22 trading price. Investors may look forward to potential dividend news when Jupiter announces its full-year results in late August. Macquarie forecasts a final dividend of 7.5 cents per share, which would translate to an attractive 7.2% dividend yield.
