Weak U.S. Jobs Data Fuels Precious Metals Surge, Citi Reverses Gold Outlook

Gold Soars Past $5,000 Milestone; Technical Analysis Eyes $5,400
Published on: Aug 4, 2025

FX Empire market analyst Vladimir Zernov noted that amid weak U.S. jobs data, gold breached the $3,370 per ounce level, silver attempted to stabilize above $37.50, and platinum prices briefly broke through resistance near $1,350. Concurrently, Citi abruptly reversed its stance, raising its gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce.

Spot gold rose 0.40% intraday. Zernov stated that if it closes above the $3,350-$3,360 resistance zone, it will target the $3,440-$3,450 range. Silver surged 1.08% intraday, with the gold:silver ratio pulling back towards the 90 level. A move above $37.50 would challenge $38.35. Platinum retreated after hitting an intraday high of $1,361 per ounce. A breakout above the $1,350 resistance would target the $1,400-$1,405 range.

Citi’s Major Forecast Revision

Citigroup announced on Monday that it has:

  1. Raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $3,500/oz from $3,300 in June.
  2. Widened its expected trading range to $3,300-$3,600 from $3,100-$3,500 previously.

Drivers cited include:

  • Persistent concerns over U.S. growth and tariff-related inflation in H2 2025.
  • A weaker U.S. dollar supporting gold’s climb to new all-time highs.
  • Weak Q2 2025 U.S. labor data.
  • Heightened concerns about the institutional credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. statistical agencies.
  • Escalating geopolitical risks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Global gross gold demand has risen over 33% since mid-2022, driving prices to nearly double by Q2 this year. Citi analysts emphasized strong investment demand, steady central bank buying, and resilient jewelry consumption despite high prices as key drivers.

This bullish forecast starkly contrasts with Citi’s position just six weeks prior. In a mid-June report, Citi had lowered its gold price outlook, warning investors prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce by year-end. At that time, the bank:

  • Revised its 0-3 month target down to $3,300/oz from $3,500.
  • Lowered its 6-12 month forecast to $2,800/oz from $3,000.

Analysts stated in the June report that they expected gold’s safe-haven appeal to diminish heading into 2026 as economic conditions improved.

Gold Platinum Precious Metals Silver