Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines and Mining Development on Wednesday announced an immediate suspension of exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates, including shipments already in transit, in a bid to tighten oversight and curb long-standing malpractices and revenue leakages in the mining sector.
Under the new regulations, only companies holding valid mining titles and operating approved processing plants will be eligible for export permits, effectively excluding agents and third-party traders. Applicants must submit recommendation letters from provincial mining offices verifying their processing capabilities and compliance, along with a declaration of mineral composition.
The ministry warned of severe penalties for violations: any entity found to have renewed expired permits or engaged in other irregularities faces revocation of both export licenses and mining titles.
The move brings forward a ban previously slated for 2027, underscoring the government’s urgency to boost local mineral processing, according to information from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). However, the policy is not blanket: companies that already have lithium salt or lithium sulphate production capacity in Zimbabwe can still apply for lithium concentrate export permits, and lithium sulphate exports remain allowed for now. This could give Chinese firms such as Huayou Cobalt and Sinomine, which have invested in local downstream facilities, a competitive edge.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates Zimbabwe’s lithium production at 28,000 metric tons of lithium content in 2025, making it the world’s fourth-largest producer after Argentina, China, and Chile. The country’s export policy shift is therefore significant enough to disrupt global lithium supply chains.
“This could exacerbate short-term supply tightness and further support an already finely balanced lithium market,” a senior lithium industry researcher told reporters.
Market sentiment reacted swiftly. Lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged as much as 6.48% on Wednesday to hit 171,400 yuan per ton, following an 11.69% jump on the first trading day after the Lunar New Year holiday.
The supply-demand dynamics have prompted analysts to revise their price outlook. In a Feb. 5 research note, UBS projected a tight global lithium carbonate market in 2026 and raised its price forecast to $26,000 per ton (approximately 180,000 yuan at the time), suggesting the lithium market may be entering its third price cycle.
On the demand side, UBS remains optimistic: it expects global lithium demand to grow 14% in 2026 and 16% in 2027, with total demand doubling to 3.4 million tons by 2030 from 1.7 million tons in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 13% through 2035.
The bank also highlighted the rising importance of energy storage, which it predicts will account for 42% of global lithium demand by 2035, up from just 8% in 2020. Notably, raw material costs have a relatively smaller impact on energy storage systems compared to module and battery costs, implying greater downstream tolerance for higher lithium prices.
