Concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on individual stocks and sectors have clearly been growing in recent months. But a single event last Monday pushed that anxiety to a new peak: AI startup Anthropic PBC announced that its Claude Code tool could modernize COBOL coding language—a major asset for International Business Machines（IBM）. The news sent IBM shares down 13% on the day, marking the stock’s worst single-day loss since 2000.
Yet more unsettling than one company’s sharp decline is a suddenly larger-scale worry surfacing in the market: Could AI, by displacing vast numbers of white-collar workers, inflict real damage on the broader U.S. economy within just two years? Over the weekend, investment research firm Citrini Research released a note titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” outlining a possible scenario for two years from now—one where AI-driven job displacement pushes the unemployment rate above 10% and aggregate demand begins to plummet as people lose their incomes.
If you follow investing and macroeconomic commentary closely, you would have noticed that the Citrini report became the dominant topic of discussion early in the week. To be clear, the report’s authors emphasized that what they’ve described is a scenario, not a prediction. But it spooked markets nonetheless: the S&P 500 index fell 1% on Monday.
The Citrini scenario unfolds along these lines: AI gets better and cheaper over the next few years. Companies respond by laying off workers. They then use the cost savings to further enhance their AI capabilities, which enables even more layoffs. Displaced workers cut back on spending. Companies that sell consumer goods see revenues decline, so they invest more heavily in AI to protect their margins. And the cycle repeats.
To quote just a small passage from the report describing what happens between early 2026 and 2028: “AI capabilities improved, companies needed fewer workers, white collar layoffs increased, displaced workers spent less, margin pressure pushed firms to invest more in AI, AI capabilities improved…” It was a negative feedback loop with no natural brake.
The end result, according to Citrini, is “Ghost GDP”—economic output that shows up in GDP figures, productivity numbers, and corporate profits but never circulates through the real economy. It’s growth that is visible on paper yet intangible on Main Street, leaving the economy hollowed out.
No one can predict the future with certainty, of course. But many economists have already poked holes in Citrini’s bleak narrative. Some point out that numerous assumptions in the report are wildly speculative. Others invoke Say’s Law—the idea that supply creates its own demand—arguing that the additional products and services produced with AI’s help will generate new demand, short-circuiting any downward spiral. Still others suggest AI could actually boost overall employment by equipping existing workers with powerful new tools to do their jobs.
What cannot be denied is that the IBM episode demonstrates how AI breakthroughs can instantly upend the valuation logic of traditional industry giants. And structural shifts in the job market often prove far harder to reverse than stock price swings.
Faced with such “doom loop” scenarios, investors need calm, not panic. The strategy of long-term buy and hold—championed by The Motley Fool and others—remains relevant. The key lies in identifying companies with forward-looking strategies: those that will put AI in the hands of their employees, using technology to genuinely empower productivity rather than simply replace people.
Back to the opening question: Is your job safe in two years? The answer may depend less on AI itself than on whether we can navigate this transformation, ensuring tools serve people rather than the other way around. For investors, rather than obsessing over grand unemployment prophecies, it makes more sense to focus on companies positioned to create lasting value in the AI age. They are the true anchors that can weather any storm.
