Goldman Sachs believes that, driven by the sustained expansion of AI infrastructure spending and new tax incentives, the forecast for U.S. corporate investment growth in 2026 has been revised upward. AI-related investments are extending from the semiconductor sector to broader areas such as servers, data centers, and power infrastructure, becoming a significant force influencing macro-level capital expenditure. In a research report released on Monday, the bank raised its forecast for U.S. corporate investment growth in 2026 from 6.5% to 7.8%, with the upward revision primarily attributed to robust growth in AI-related spending—annualized expenditures reached $650 billion in the first quarter and are expected to exceed $800 billion by the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng stated in the report that as companies accelerate infrastructure construction, AI-related spending will continue to drive growth in equipment and structural investment in 2026. Currently, AI investments are flowing into servers, semiconductors, storage, power infrastructure, data centers, software, and R&D. Peng noted that AI-related spending is expected to boost real capital expenditure growth by approximately 3.3 percentage points in 2026. However, the report also pointed out that the direct boost from AI spending to U.S. GDP growth is relatively limited, mainly because a large portion of related equipment relies on imports, and there is some undercounting of semiconductor investments in official GDP statistics. Peng estimates that AI-related spending will boost real GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points in 2026, but this will translate to only a 0.1 percentage point increase in official GDP statistics.
Goldman Sachs also noted that the impact of new tax incentives under the “Big and Beautiful Act” is gradually becoming evident in investment data. The act expands the scope of expense deductions, which is expected to boost capital expenditure growth by about 3 percentage points in 2026, with manufacturing, transportation, and industrial sectors benefiting the most. Goldman Sachs stated that robust AI spending combined with new tax incentives will support steady capital expenditure growth in 2026.
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, oil prices have risen sharply recently. However, Goldman Sachs believes that higher energy costs will not materially impact the current investment wave. The sectors primarily affected are transportation-related industries such as aviation, trucking, and rail transport. Goldman Sachs estimates that higher oil prices will only drag down overall U.S. capital expenditure by about 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points.
Amid the AI wave, tech giants have launched an unprecedented “capital arms race.” Combined capital expenditure forecasts for 2026 from the four major cloud service providers—Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN)—have surged to $725 billion. To bridge funding gaps, tech giants are intensively issuing bonds, with global AI-related debt accumulating to approximately $300 billion, and investor enthusiasm is showing signs of cooling. Deeper concerns stem from the uncertainty surrounding AI inputs and returns, and the future cash flows and capital structures of tech giants warrant continued observation.
