American Tungsten Corp. (TSXV: TUNG, OTCQB: DEMRF)
Building America’s Defense Critical Metals Supply
Shares of Northcliff Resources Ltd. (TSX: NCF) surged as much as 18.64% in early trading Wednesday, propelled by a feasibility study update for its Sisson tungsten-molybdenum project that underscored both robust economics and the project’s strategic value in a tungsten market dominated by China.
The updated study, released a day earlier, projects an after-tax net present value of C$6.915 billion at an 8% discount rate for the open-pit mine and processing facility in New Brunswick, on a 100% project basis. The internal rate of return is estimated at 49.8%, with a payback period of just 1.6 years. These figures are based on price forecasts from Argus Metals, which assume European tungsten concentrate prices rising from US$1,520 per metric tonne unit (MTU) in 2030 to US$1,880 by 2040 and beyond, and molybdenum concentrate prices easing from US$29.57 per pound in 2030 to US$28.44 from 2040 onward. The assumed exchange rate is C$1.35 per US dollar.
The economics represent a dramatic shift from a 2013 feasibility study, which had estimated an after-tax net present value of C$418 million against initial capital of C$579 million, with a 16% internal rate of return and a 4.5-year payback. Initial capital in the new study has risen to C$1.528 billion, yet the net present value is more than 15 times higher. President and CEO Andrew Ing attributed the improvement to significantly higher metal prices—particularly tungsten—since 2013 and a more favorable exchange rate, while noting that inflation, higher provincial tax rates, and changes to the mine plan, tailings facility and infrastructure have increased capital and operating costs. The revised plan also drops the previously proposed ammonium paratungstate plant in favor of direct tungsten concentrate production, partially offsetting cost increases.
Under the new mine plan, Sisson would process 30,000 tonnes of ore per day, or 10.3 million tonnes annually, over a 27-year mine life, with a total of 277 million tonnes processed and an average strip ratio of 0.97:1. Life-of-mine production is projected at 16.1 million MTU of tungsten trioxide and 113.5 million pounds of molybdenum, with average annual output of 598,000 MTU and 4.2 million pounds at recoveries of 78% and 82%, respectively. Higher-grade material in the first five years is expected to lift average annual tungsten trioxide production to 767,000 MTU, alongside 4.0 million pounds of molybdenum. Total operating cash costs are estimated at C$9.23 per tonne milled, net of by-product credits. Construction would require about 500 workers over two years, while operations would directly employ approximately 300 people.
The project’s economics are reinforced by structural tightness in global tungsten supply. China produced an estimated 67,000 tonnes of tungsten last year, accounting for roughly 79% of the world’s 85,000 tonnes. Output outside China stands at about 18,000 tonnes, meaning Sisson’s planned average annual production of roughly 5,980 tonnes of tungsten trioxide would equal about 26% of current non-Chinese supply—rising to 34% during the higher-grade first five years. Canada has produced no tungsten since its last mine closed in 2015. In February 2025, China imposed export controls on selected tungsten products, pushing prices outside China sharply higher. European tungsten concentrate was still assessed at US$2,400 to US$2,600 per dry MTU in mid-August, well above the long-term price assumptions used in the new study.
Ing said in the release that Northcliff aims to become a reliable and easily accessible producer of tungsten and molybdenum, strengthening the resilience of critical mineral supply chains for Canada and its trading partners. The company plans to make a construction decision in the latter part of 2027, with production targeted for 2030. The project has already secured major federal and provincial environmental approvals and last year received US$15 million from the U.S. Department of Defense and C$8.2 million from the Canadian government. New Zealand’s Todd Corp. holds 82% of Northcliff, which in turn owns 88.5% of the Sisson project.
The market response was immediate. Northcliff shares closed 22% higher on Tuesday and continued climbing early Wednesday. For Western markets seeking to diversify away from China’s grip on tungsten supply, a Canadian mine of this scale moving toward development carries clear strategic weight.
