Gold prices are consolidating in a tightening range between an uptrend support line and resistance at $3,360, forming an ascending triangle pattern. A breakout above key resistance could propel prices toward $3,400 and beyond. Meanwhile, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) maintains its bullish outlook, projecting an average gold price of $3,600 per ounce for both this year and next.
Gold has recently traded within a narrow range, creating a critical technical standoff. The price fluctuates in a contracting range between the uptrend support extending from the February 28 low and horizontal resistance at $3,360. This uptrend support has successfully held against six tests, including one last Thursday. However, the $3,360 resistance level has repeatedly capped rallies, with multiple failed attempts to break higher last week, resulting in a stalemate.
This tightening consolidation pattern may resolve later this week, potentially triggering a significant directional move. The current ascending triangle formation suggests a marginally higher probability of an upside breakout versus a breakdown of trend support. Momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD show a mild bullish bias, gradually trending upward into positive territory. However, neither price action nor momentum signals are conclusive, advising traders to remain open-minded about potential outcomes.
Breakout Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: A daily close above $3,360 resistance would initially target the July 16 high of $3,377. A decisive break above this level could then challenge $3,400 and the June peak of $3,451.30, ultimately targeting the all-time high of $3,500.
Bearish Risk: A breakdown below the confluence of the 50-day moving average (MA) and trendline support could trigger a decline toward $3,310 (July 17 low) and $3,283 (July 9 low), with major support emerging around $3,250.
Despite recent relative weakness, CIBC Capital Markets reaffirms its bullish stance. Analyst Anita Soni’s team forecasts gold will average $3,600/oz in the second half of 2025, representing a 3% gain above April’s record peak of $3,500. This upward revision significantly exceeds CIBC’s earlier December 2023 prediction of $2,800 for 2024.
CIBC’s bullish thesis hinges on three key drivers:
Soni’s team expects the $3,600 average price to hold through 2026, before moderating to approximately $3,300 in 2027 and $3,000 in 2028.
Aligned with this revised gold outlook, CIBC has raised price targets for several Canadian mining stocks, Including Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (TSX: AEM)、Kinross Gold Corp. (TSX: K)、Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX: AGI)、Franco-Nevada Corp. (TSX: FNV) and Discovery Silver Corp. (TSX: DSV).
