After a decade of downturn, the commodities market is nearing a structural inflection point. Years of underinvestment and shifting supply-demand fundamentals have set the stage for a potential new supercycle. While past cycles were driven by factors like 1970s oil shocks or China’s 2000s urbanization boom, the current cycle is fueled by more complex global forces: geopolitical supply constraints, the green energy transition, and soaring AI-related demand.
Once underway, supercycles are notoriously difficult to stop—as seen with Volcker’s rate hikes in the 1980s or the U.S. shale revolution. This time, inelastic supply and resilient demand could sustain the cycle longer than expected.
Supply risks are amplified by high geographic concentration. Chile and Peru produce over 40% of the world’s copper; Australia and Brazil supply more than half of all iron ore. China dominates processing, refining nearly 90% of rare earths and 40% of global copper. Geopolitics are intensifying these vulnerabilities, as seen in China’s 2025 rare earth export restrictions and U.S. LNG agreements tied to trade deals.
In a July 2025 interview with METALS 100, Jay Chmelauskas, CEO, President, and Director of Camino Minerals Corp (TSXV: COR), shared the company’s latest developments and upcoming plans. Camino is a copper exploration company focused on developing the Puquios copper project in Chile and advancing its projects in Peru, including Los Chapitos and Maria Cecilia. On March 17, 2025, Camino acquired full ownership of the Puquios copper project. At its Los Chapitos Project, the company reported high-grade copper and silver results from 12 channels at the Katty prospect and secured CAD $1.5 million in funding from its partner, Nittetsu, to support the next phase of exploration and drilling.
On the demand side, electrification and AI are driving unprecedented metal consumption. Copper is emblematic—the IEA warns of a 30% supply shortfall by 2035, stemming from structural deficits rather than cyclical swings. Tech giants are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, making raw material access a strategic necessity.
Financially, commodities remain deeply undervalued. Inflation-adjusted copper prices are 30% below 2011 peaks, and the broad commodity index is 70% below 2008 highs—even as the S&P 500 continues to reach new inflation-adjusted highs.
Although timing such a cycle is notoriously challenging, the underlying conditions for a new commodities supercycle are rapidly falling into place. The convergence of resource nationalism, green metal deficits, the AI energy race, and financial repricing forms the foundation of this new era. For investors, the risk of ignoring this shift may far exceed the cost of embracing it.
