Silver Soars to Record High: What’s Fueling the Rally?

Silver Squeeze Threat Persists Despite Price Retreat
Published on: Dec 1, 2025

Silver prices have surged past all previous records, gaining more than 12% in just one week and nearly doubling since the start of the year—vastly outperforming gold and seizing the spotlight in global markets. On Monday, spot silver climbed for a sixth consecutive session, hitting a historic peak of $58.81 per ounce.

The Immediate Catalyst: A Squeeze Moving from London to Shanghai

The rally finds its roots in a tightening physical supply chain. It began with a historic short squeeze in London last month, which triggered liquidity strains and opened arbitrage windows, drawing silver out of major global warehouses. Latest data shows inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses have dropped to just 559 tonnes—their lowest in nearly a decade—down 61% since January. COMEX stocks have also fallen, reaching an eight-month low.

“Shortages in the global market as a result of the recent squeeze in London are still being felt,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Group Holdings. The strain is clearly reflected in China’s futures market, where the curve has moved into backwardation—with spot prices trading at a premium to later contracts—a classic sign of near-term scarcity.

The Momentum: Speculative “Fast Money” and ETF Inflows

While tight inventories set the stage, speculative capital has taken center stage. “Last week’s move has been speculatively driven, with accelerating upside momentum attracting more and more fast money,” noted David Wilson, director of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas.

Evidence of strong investor interest is clear: global silver ETFs saw inflows of 9.5 million ounces last week alone, including a single-day inflow of 7.5 million ounces on Tuesday—the largest in weeks—completely reversing October’s net outflows.

Macro conditions have added fuel to the fire. Growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates this month have weakened the dollar and boosted the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver. Recent soft U.S. labor data and dovish Fed commentary have reinforced this outlook.

Deeper Forces: Structural Imbalance and the Retail “Juggernaut”

Beyond immediate factors, several observers point to deeper structural shifts. On one hand, global mine supply remains subdued, while industrial demand from solar, electronics, and green energy stays robust. Recycling volumes have not increased meaningfully despite higher prices, pointing to a potential sustained supply-demand imbalance.

On the other hand, a long-underestimated force is gaining influence: retail investors.

“Sovereigns don’t care about silver—retail does. And retail demand is a juggernaut. Once retail decides to own silver, it becomes unstoppable,” said Clem Chambers, CEO of Online Blockchain PLC. Strong sales of silver coins and small bars, along with delivery delays reported by Asian bullion dealers, appear to support this view.

Diverging Views: Noise or a New Era?

As prices hit unprecedented levels, opinions are split. Some see the rally as speculative overheating—a temporary “noise”—and are watching COMEX delivery notices for signs of immediate stress. Others, like Chambers, believe this is only the beginning. He projects silver could climb significantly higher, with a sell target around $95 per ounce.

What remains clear is that silver is experiencing a complex convergence of drivers: physical scarcity, speculative frenzy, supportive macro policy, and rising retail participation. With inventory buffers thinning, any additional demand shock could trigger even sharper price moves. This rally may be far from over.

China News Futures Precious Metals Silver