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A recent Goldman Sachs report suggests uranium could become the “next gold,” with the core driver of its price increase stemming from a widening structural supply shortage. The bank forecasts that by the end of 2026, spot uranium prices could climb to around $91 per pound, representing approximately 20% upside from current levels. Although the spot and long-term contract markets are driven by different mechanisms, both face upward price risks, with long-term contract prices having risen from $80 per pound in August this year to $86 per pound.
The long-term contract market typically better reflects the long-term supply and demand fundamentals of the uranium industry. Utility companies often sign delivery contracts here for the next three to ten years, and the recent sustained increase in contract prices confirms market concerns about future supply. Contracts from producers like Cameco (CCJ) show that their market-linked contracts have pricing ranges between $70 and $130 per pound, with a midpoint around $100, suggesting further upside potential for long-term prices. Goldman Sachs’ models for CCJ and Uranium Energy (UEC) also support the projection that spot prices will reach $91 per pound by the end of 2026.
Goldman Sachs’ updated supply-demand model indicates that accelerated global new reactor construction and adjustments on the supply side have increased the cumulative net deficit for the period 2025-2045 by 211 million pounds, expanding the gap from the original 1.703 billion pounds to 1.914 billion pounds. This adjustment is based on more detailed fuel analysis, reactor capacity factor estimates, and the assumption of extending the average reactor lifespan from 75 to 80 years. Ultimately, the cumulative supply gap for 2025-2035 is approximately 13%, which is projected to further widen to 32% by 2045. This long-term structural shortage is expected to significantly drive prices higher.
Changes on the demand side primarily stem from accelerated nuclear energy plans in multiple countries. Russia plans to double its nuclear power capacity, leading Goldman Sachs’ model to add 15 reactors within the forecast period, generating about 15 million pounds of initial fuel demand. Nuclear power construction in the US is also showing signs of acceleration. Based on government targets and related cooperation plans, Goldman Sachs expects the US to build 20 new reactors and restart 3 existing reactors between 2025 and 2045. Using the empirical estimate that 1 GW of nuclear energy requires 500,000 pounds of uranium annually, once these reactors come online, annual US demand will increase by 12.5 million pounds, with initial fuel demand adding an extra 37.5 million pounds.
