If you happened to catch Donald Trump’s Truth Social post over the weekend, you might have thought Palantir (PLTR) was about to blast off.
The President fired off an enthusiastic post last Friday, hailing the data mining company for its “great warfighting capabilities.” With U.S.-Iran tensions simmering and global supply chains stretched thin, a presidential endorsement felt like a powerful shot of adrenaline. Palantir shares duly bounced on Monday, surging nearly 5% during intraday trading.
Yet on the other side of the screen, Wall Street’s top players were smirking. Michael Burry — the man immortalized in The Big Short for calling the 2008 subprime meltdown — is telling the market with real money that no matter how loud Trump shouts, this stock remains overvalued.
Palantir has every reason to be proud. As the go-to AI analytics brain for the U.S. military and the CIA, its role in modern warfare is irreplaceable. From tracking terrorists to optimizing logistics, Palantir’s Gotham platform is the digital nerve center of the Pentagon. Trump wasn’t wrong when he said the company is good at warfighting.
But here’s the cruel reality of capital markets: Strong operations and a rising stock price are two entirely different things.
Even with the President’s backing, Palantir’s stock is still down over 36% from its all-time high, and it has shed 26% since the start of 2026. This recent bounce looks feeble against the weight of persistent selling pressure.
Burry not only confirmed this week that he maintains a significant bearish position in Palantir, but he also delivered a chilling warning to investors: Emerging AI rival Anthropic is “eating Palantir’s lunch.”
According to Burry’s own confirmation, he continues to hold put options against Palantir stock. The specific positions include:
When disclosing these holdings, Burry stated bluntly: “I am not selling these today.”
Why hasn’t the presidential halo rescued this stock? The core conflict boils down to valuation.
Palantir currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 100 times and a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 43 times. This isn’t a valuation reserved for a blue-chip stalwart; it’s a price tag reserved for a “world-changing myth.” The stock has already priced in the next three to five years of AI-driven military modernization and global government conquest.
The uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict only amplifies this fragility. While defense contracts are coveted during wartime, the high inflation, elevated oil prices, and looming recessionary fears triggered by war tend to crush high-valuation growth stocks mercilessly. When aircraft carriers square off in the Strait of Hormuz, a fund manager’s first instinct isn’t, “How many contracts can Palantir win?” It’s, “I need to cut my exposure to this 100x P/E name — fast.”
