Recent volatility in the share price of leading U.S. copper producer Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) has been influenced by the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Despite this, the U.S. government’s clear intent to support the domestic supply of critical metals—including copper—has been underscored by its recent addition of copper to the latest draft list of critical minerals. This reinforces the view that Freeport-McMoRan, as “America’s Copper Champion,” presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity.
Key factors supporting this outlook are outlined below.
Copper is a critical material for the modern economy, essential to the “electrification of everything” trend—encompassing electric vehicles, the Internet of Things, renewable energy, data centers, and the supporting transmission and distribution networks. Regardless of how tariff policies evolve, the Trump administration is highly likely to continue supporting domestic copper production, with Freeport-McMoRan playing a central role.
The company holds a dominant position in U.S. domestic production, supplying 70% of the copper ore used for refining within the country. Although expectations of tariffs on copper initially created a price premium from which Freeport would have benefited, the administration ultimately imposed tariffs only on semi-finished products (such as wire and pipes) while exempting refined copper. This decision caused the COMEX premium to collapse and contributed to stock price volatility.
However, in August of this year, the U.S. government released an updated draft list of critical minerals that included copper. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stated that refined copper was included due to the potential for severe economic consequences should supply be disrupted. Industry advocates have actively pushed for copper’s designation as a critical mineral, emphasizing its importance to both economic and national security. Inclusion on the list would make related exploration, mining, and processing projects eligible for funding incentives and streamlined permitting.
Freeport continues to advance its leaching initiative, which recovers copper from existing stockpiles without the need for new mining operations. This allows the company to significantly increase production and sales volume. The company aims to achieve an annualized leaching capacity of 300 million pounds by the end of 2025, increasing to 800 million pounds by 2030. Management expects total copper sales of 4.0 billion pounds in 2025. The leaching initiative not represents a major revenue growth opportunity but is also expected to improve profit margins due to its low capital investment and operating costs.
In addition, the company has several brownfield expansion projects in the pipeline that could add 2.5 billion pounds of copper production capacity in the future—47% of which is located in the U.S., with 33% in Chile and 23% in Indonesia.
Regardless of shifts in COMEX premiums or tariff policy, Freeport’s valuation remains highly competitive under a neutral copper price outlook. Based on management projections (assuming no COMEX premium), the company could generate EBITDA of $13.1 billion in 2026/2027. With a current enterprise value (EV) of $67.5 billion, this implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of less than 5.2x—a highly attractive level based on historical valuation charts.
